Côte d’Ivoire’s economic capital, Abidjan, is said to be the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in miniature. It is at the city’s thronging Adjamé market – where minibuses slalom between water sellers, plunging their customers into a chorus of horns – that this maxim assumes its full meaning.

Far from coups and diplomatic tensions, Nigeriens, Guineans and Nigerians, but above all Malians and Burkinabes, live in this area alongside locals.

One in five residents of Côte d’Ivoire was born elsewhere – a record on the African continent. According to the UN, there are 1.3 million Burkinabes and more than half a million Malians living in the country, but these figures fall far short of the latest Ivorian census.

Undocumented migrants?

Oumara Diallo left Mali more than a decade ago. The young man now runs one of the hundreds of clothes shops in Adjamé market. He still doesn’t understand why the Alliance of Sahel States (AoSS), comprised of Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, announced in January that they would quit ECOWAS.

“Before leaving, there should have been negotiations. We don’t know what will happen to us. I don’t want to go back to Mali, there is too much insecurity and business isn’t working. And to stay here, are we going to have to pay for a residence permit?”

I wonder about this decision, it’s too hasty. We’re too used to moving around as we please

This was the chief concern for all the foreign residents we spoke to. Currently, nationals of the countries that make up ECOWAS can move freely, settle and work in 15 states. In the future, will those from the three AoSS states living in Côte d’Ivoire have to pay 300,000 CFA francs ($495) a year for a residence permit, like other foreigners?

“I’m thinking of all my brothers who work in cocoa plantations or on building sites. They won’t be able to afford that kind of money. They’re going to become illegal immigrants in Côte d’Ivoire,” says Ousmane Kambou, who imports and exports clothing between Burkina Faso and Côte d’Ivoire. The Burkina-born entrepreneur says he supports the regime of Ibrahim Traoré, Burkina Faso’s transitional president.

“But I wonder about this decision, it’s too hasty. We’re too used to moving around as we please,” he says. For the time being, he hasn’t noticed any drop in business, but he is worried about what may happen.

Uncertain future

For Malian hauliers, the departure of the three states from ECOWAS poses an urgent problem. “The Malian community is very active in trade, particularly cross-border trade, and in logistics,” says Ivorian economist Séraphin Prao Yao. “Their whole business is under threat.”

If Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso are to leave ECOWAS – and the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), as statements by the juntas suggest – this could mean a return to customs duties, and hence an increase in the cost of goods on both sides.

“But we haven’t gotten that far yet, it’s all just a guess,” says the economist.

We’re adding more barriers. As if Africa needed that

Indeed, the timetable and consequences of this exit remain unclear. According to the ECOWAS statutes, a period of one year’s notice is required before leaving the organisation. The AoSS has sidestepped this issue, saying its decision is effective immediately.

“Technically, it’s an imbroglio, and despite the announcements, their withdrawal is not yet effective,” Yao says. “It’s a political whim – these states haven’t thought through the consequences.”

“It is possible to be a member of WAEMU while remaining in ECOWAS. This is the case for Ghana, Nigeria and Guinea. But [leaving ECOWAS] has never happened and seems technically complicated,” says an informed observer of the region.

While free movement of goods and people remains the rule for now, the region’s economic operators are not reassured. “It’s very bad for the regional economic fabric,” says Kouame Désiré Adou, president of the Association des Jeunes Entrepreneurs de Côte d’Ivoire (AJECI).

“We’re losing a market, whether real or potential. We’re adding more barriers. As if Africa needed that. No sensible Ivorian investor would bet on these three countries today.”