The rival armed groups, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), control approximately 85% of Sudan’s economy — wielding substantial influence — introducing a layer of complexity that reverberates throughout the supply chains.

These forces not only impact the immediate logistical challenges faced by traders and farmers but also play a pivotal role in determining the economic landscape of a nation grappling with hyper-inflation, widespread poverty, and a looming famine.

The repercussions of the conflict extend far beyond Sudan’s borders: they affect global supply chains, emphasising the critical role that the country plays for industries worldwide.

Once the top seller

Sudan’s gum arabic production, a vital component in various industries, has witnessed a staggering 50% reduction because of the ongoing conflict. While some stockpiles exist, the looming shortage for manufacturing companies is a cause for concern.

“The once-accessible gum arabic forests, spread across 13 states in Sudan, now face severe accessibility issues due to security unrest,” Tarig Elsheikh Mahmoud of the University of Kordofan, tells The Africa Report. “This has led to a cascade of challenges, from labour shortages and disruptions in working capital to the collapse of the entire industry.”

The gum arabic stakeholders, particularly the processors and manufacturers, bear the brunt of these economic woes, as they struggle to afford basic inputs and necessities like raw materials, fuel, electricity, water and skilled labour.

“More than 80% of gum arabic factories, most of which are located in the Soba and Al-Baqir areas of Khartoum State, have left the production circle due to their exposure to damage, looting, and theft,” Mahmoud says.

The conflict has not only rendered the gum arabic forests inaccessible but has also disrupted various aspects of the supply chain. Mahmoud says feeder roads and national highways are blocked, markets at all levels disturbed, and the industry faces skyrocketing transportation costs from production areas to Port Sudan.

Transportation costs imposed by the various armed forces from production areas to Port Sudan have skyrocketed. The container fees have also increased considerably as a result of the Houthi attacks, and the farmers have lost access to funding.

Samah Salman, an American-Sudanese food security expert says “control over territories by the RSF and the SAF dictates the safe routes for gum arabic shipments, which further disrupts the supply chain”.

Clandestine smuggling

The economic instability in Sudan resulting from the conflict has led to hyper-inflation, exceeding 3000%, and widespread poverty.

Salman says approximately 42% of the population or 20.3 million Sudanese are acutely food insecure and half the population — 24.7 million — needs humanitarian assistance. Both the SAF and the RSF are accused of blocking food aid to civilians.

Will Carter, the Sudan director of Norwegian Refugee Council, says as a result of the conflict, “food aid in kind is needed … as Sudan is facing a catastrophic hunger crisis and food availability is challenged”.

Carter adds that local economies need to be supported, both on the supply and demand sides.

The conflict’s devastating impact extends beyond economic considerations to the livelihoods of millions of people across Sudan’s Gum Belt where the rotation of crops to gum trees has significantly affected the livestock sector, human capital, and state capacity.

The war’s destruction rate of gum arabic trees and the removal of acacia trees is a contributing factor to desertification and soil degradation.

The conflict disrupts legal channels and fuels the clandestine smuggling of gum arabic to Chad and South Sudan. Historically, a significant portion of Sudan’s gum arabic has been smuggled through informal trade routes to avoid high tariffs and punitive taxes imposed by the government. This impacts the traceability of the commodity and hinders accurate estimation of production volumes.

Glimmer of hope

Red sesame from conflict-affected areas faces unique challenges, including heightened security risks, difficulty in accessing fields, and disruptions in the cultivation process. On the other hand, white sesame cultivation in non-affected regions becomes a beacon of stability, not only due to its economic viability but also because of its less labour-intensive nature.

“Farmers and traders, cognisant of the complexities introduced by the conflict, strategically pivot towards sesame to ensure a more reliable and secure income source,” says Islam Baasher, a Sudanese food logistics expert.

The shift is driven by economic pragmatism and the perceived ease of cultivation and harvesting associated with sesame. The crop’s relatively shorter growth cycle and lower resource requirements compared to gum arabic make it an attractive alternative for farmers navigating an unpredictable and disrupted environment. And the adaptability of sesame to a range of soil types and climates further contributes to its appeal, providing farmers with a versatile and resilient option.

This dynamic shift underscores the nuanced reasons behind the transition to sesame cultivation. Beyond economic considerations, the adaptability, versatility, and less labour-intensive nature of sesame farming make it a practical choice in the face of conflict-induced disruptions.