During the Cold War, Pakistan and Russia experienced icy relations. Pakistan was apprehensive of Russia’s closeness with India, while Moscow was apprehensive of Islamabad’s alliance with the West since the establishment of Pakistan and the simultaneous start of the Cold War.

However, since the beginning of its Ukraine invasion, Russia has sought to portray itself to the Global South as a great power bravely defying the Western order led by the United States. Moscow seeks to build its networks in Asia, Africa, and South America through trade, particularly exporting its abundant natural resources. 

Amid this trend, Pakistan’s relations with Russia improved in the recent past due to the growing trade linkages between the two, as remarked by Russian President Vladimir Putin during his meeting with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif during the Summit of Shanghai Cooperation Organization Council of Heads of State in Astana, Kazakhstan, in July. There has also been an increased engagement between the two countries since that meeting. 

The new closeness in Pakistan-Russia ties came against the backdrop of Pakistan’s soured relations with the United States since 2011. Pakistan-Russia relations since then have been moving on an upward trajectory, however slowly.

During the last few years, in particular, Islamabad and Moscow have taken initiatives to augment their relations. Pakistan is a resource-trapped country with depleting natural gas resources and a growing population. Russia, meanwhile, is faced with sanctions due to its aggressive Ukraine invasion and needs more export partners, especially in Asia. These mutual needs have brought both countries closer. 

Putin expressed his satisfaction with the positive development of bilateral relations. He further said that he saw Pakistan as a priority partner particularly in South Asia and generally in Asia. This signals the significance of Pakistan in Russia’s pivot to the Global South.

Owing to this growing closeness, Alexei Overchuk, Russia’s deputy prime minister, led a high-level delegation to Pakistan on September 18 and 19. Overchuk held meetings with Sharif as well as Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, who is also the deputy prime minister of Pakistan. During this visit, both sides discussed bilateral cooperation and agreed to pursue cooperation and dialogue in the areas of education, energy, industry, technology, connectivity, and trade.

Pakistan and Russia further reaffirmed their determination to strengthen their defense and security cooperation in various domains. Islamabad’s commitment to advancing defense ties with Moscow was also reiterated. 

Additionally, during his meeting with the Russian delegation, Pakistan’s President Asif Ali Zardari highlighted the need for improved connectivity through direct flights and railway networks, along with the need for facilitated business interactions and increased people-to-people connections between the two countries. 

Besides this, they also agreed to develop their cooperation on multilateral forums including the SCO and the United Nations. Russia’s Overchuk also expressed support for Pakistan’s entry into the BRICS, an intergovernmental group of countries from the Global South. However, there was no mention of Pakistan’s participation in next month’s BRICS summit in Russia. At the same time, Overchuk said that Russia’s Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin will attend the Heads of Government meeting of the SCO next month in Pakistan.

Despite the growing ties between Islamabad and Moscow, there is still a certain level of existing mistrust between the two countries owing to Pakistan’s neutral stance on the Russia-Ukraine war and its alleged supply of weapons to Ukraine. Since the Ukraine war, Pakistan has been facing tough choices. On one hand, it has been accused of selling arms to Ukraine under a deal with the United States that supposedly helped to facilitate an International Monetary Fund bailout package in 2023. Pakistan’s then interim prime minister, Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar denied the allegations. Furthermore, Ukraine’s then-Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba visited Pakistan and was reported to have met senior Pakistani intelligence officials during his visit in July 2023. 

On the other hand, Pakistan has thrice abstained from U.N. General Assembly resolutions condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and maintained a neutral position on the Russia-Ukraine war. Without condemning Russia’s actions, Pakistan has called for respecting the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine. Pakistan’s stance is believed to originate from its prevailing energy shortage, which it hopes to overcome with subsidized energy from Russia. 

Pakistan, however, has not been able to benefit much from Russia’s energy resources, though it received its first discounted Russian crude oil in June 2023. Moreover, Pakistan has not been able to implement the Pakistan Stream gas pipeline, despite a 2015 agreement for Russia to build and operate the pipeline. From Pakistan’s side, the delay in its implementation is due to the sanctions imposed on Russia. This concern was also shared by Pakistan’s foreign minister during his press conference with his Russian counterpart during this official visit. 

Despite tough choices and sanctions, there is noticeably increased engagement between Islamabad and Moscow. Russia needs allies in its pivot to the Global South while Pakistan’s economic woes compel it to keep engaging with the former – despite the possible impact on its relations with the United States. With its huge population and the depleting natural resources, Pakistan is a potential market for Russia’s resources. Simultaneously, Russia’s natural gas and oil can play a crucial role in helping Pakistan overcome its energy crisis and boost its industry, which has long suffered due to prevailing energy shortages. 

At first glance, it seems a win-win situation, but the geopolitical reality and Islamabad’s dependence on Washington make it an imbalanced situation for Pakistan. Therefore, Pakistan’s stand in Russia’s pivot to the Global South depends on its pragmatism.