In a deal brokered by Turkiye Wednesday, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud agreed to resolve some of the contentious issues between their two countries following “a frank and constructive discussion”.

A joint declaration was reached after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met the two leaders separately. Among them was an agreement to “closely work together to finalise mutually advantageous commercial arrangements” which would allow Ethiopia to enjoy “reliable, secure and sustainable access to and from the sea under the sovereign authority of the Federal Republic of Somalia”.

Ethiopia and Somalia have been at diplomatic war since Addis Ababa signed a controversial deal with Somaliland early this year. Under the deal, Somaliland is to lease part of its coastland around the port of Berbera on the Gulf of Aden to its landlocked neighbour — for 50 years — for military and commercial purposes. In exchange, Ethiopia would formally recognise Somaliland as an independent state.

Somalia accused Ethiopia of “aggression” and described the deal as an “impediment to peace and stability”.

However, Erdogan said the deal signed by the leaders of the two countries was the first step towards a new beginning based on peace and cooperation, praising their ability to overcome “some resentments and misunderstandings” together.

A focus on the future, not the past

“This joint declaration focuses on the future, not the past, and records the principles that these two friendly countries, which are very important to us, will build from now on. I wholeheartedly congratulate my dear brothers for reaching this historic agreement with great devotion and thank them for their constructive attitude,” Erdogan said at a press briefing at the end of the talks in Ankara.

He said that he believed the joint declaration would lay a solid foundation for cooperation and economic development: “From now on, we will decide together on the steps we will take and implement projects that will increase the peace and prosperity of the people of the region.”

Ethiopian President Taye Atske Selassie, in a brief statement, said he was confident Ethiopia’s “legitimate interests to secure dependable access to and from the sea will be fulfilled peacefully in cooperation with our neighbours”.

List of agreed items

Under the agreement, Ethiopia and Somalia will start technical negotiations – facilitated by Turkiye – in good faith no later than the end of February 2025, and to be concluded and signed in four months. Other agreements laid out in the joint statement include:

• The leaders reaffirmed their respect and commitment to one another’s sovereignty, unity, independence and territorial integrity, as well as the principles enshrined in international law, the Charter of the United Nations and the Constitutive Act of the African Union.
• They agreed to forgo contentious issues and forge ahead in a cooperative manner to pursue shared prosperity.
• Somalia recognised sacrifices of Ethiopian soldiers within the African Union Missions, and acknowledged the potentially diverse benefits that could be derived from Ethiopia’s assured access to and from the sea.

The two countries praised Turkiye’s role and pledged to resolve any differences concerning the interpretation and application of the agreements “through dialogue and in a peaceful manner”.

The deal is a positive outcome for the Horn of Africa, says Omar Mahmood, a senior Eastern Africa analyst at International Crisis Group, adding that it removes a serious rift in the Horn that was playing out in a number of damaging ways.

“It has always made sense for Ethiopia’s market to link with Somalia’s coastline, so it is good that the contentious elements around a security presence or sovereignty have been set aside in order to pursue this,” Mahmood tells The Africa Report. “The commitment by the two leaders to work together is the key shift and should lower tensions in the region related to Ethiopia’s previous MoU with Somaliland.”

Dissenting views

He warns, however, that there are further details to hammer out, adding some potential hurdles could arise.

Not everyone thinks highly of the Ankara talks. Many Somalis have taken to social media to express their dissatisfaction of the outcome of the talks.

“You have betrayed the Somali people and the good will they had towards you,” @SomaNationalist told President Mohamud on X, adding that Turkiye had “rendered Somalia sovereignty and territorial integrity as commodity for its strategic interests and allowed Ethiopia to have its way. You have backstabbed the Somali people,” he wrote.

“Only in Somalia can a failed leader travel 4,302.1 miles to negotiate the transfer of his property — something given to him by God — to a landlocked country,” Somali social commentator and analyst, Elham Ishmael, posted on X. “Such a leader exists only in Somalia. In many other nations, this would lead to full-scale conflict. Turkey is acting as a broker, and Somalis need to wake up before it’s too late.”

Turkiye’s growing foothold in Africa

Turkiye, which has been mediating between Ethiopia and Somalia since the beginning of the year, is using diplomacy and conflict resolution efforts – among others – to expand its foothold and influence in Africa.

“As a symbol of our principled stance towards ensuring the sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity of countries, our fundamental expectation is to ensure peace and stability in this distinguished corner of Africa,” said President Erdogan.

While Ankara provides military and security support to Somalia, investing more than $1bn in projects ranging from airport expansions to schools, and using Somalia as a staging ground for its military and political influence in the Horn of Africa, it maintains cordial ties with Ethiopia.

Mehmet Celik, a Turkish geopolitical analyst and editorial coordinator at Istanbul-based Daily Sabah newspaper, says brokering a deal between Ethiopia and Somalia has given Turkiye trust and prestige among the regional countries.

“A hard conflict between the two neighbours would affect the region drastically and ultimately Turkiye’s relations and investments in both countries would also be affected,” he tells The Africa Report. “As a country that seeks to contribute and maintain peace and stability in Africa, Turkiye has effectively used its diplomatic muscle to bring the sides together to avoid further confrontation between the parties.”