The Ethiopian strategy in the Red Sea is an increasing threat to the countries of the Red Sea coast. Ethiopia has pursued its long-term goals by creating a geopolitical environment that often harms regional peace, destabilizes Somalia, weakens Islamic countries, and exploits conflicts for its benefit.

Ethiopia’s actions are rooted in a calculated effort to prevent the rise of strong governments in its neighborhood, particularly Somalia. For over 35 years, Ethiopia has interfered in Somali affairs, ensuring the country remains fragmented and unable to challenge its ambitions. The rationale behind this is clear: a stable Somalia could obstruct Ethiopia’s Red Sea aspirations and advocate for regional unity against Ethiopia’s plans.

Ethiopia’s internal politics work in a way that keeps certain groups excluded. Although about one-third of the country’s population is Muslim (34%), people in Ethiopia do not have the right to freely choose their government or be represented fairly. Military rulers have been in power for a long time and have put systems in place to exclude people from different ethnic and religious groups. This is done on purpose to keep those in power in control and to stop any efforts for change or inclusion of others.

The Ankara Accord: A Misstep in Mediation and France’s Strategic Maneuvers

Turkey’s role as a mediator in the Ankara Accord has also come under scrutiny. While Turkey has been a strong ally of Somalia—providing development assistance, humanitarian aid, and military support—its approach to this agreement has raised doubts about its neutrality. By portraying Somalia as a country that “receives help” and Ethiopia as a “strategic partner,” Turkey risks creating an imbalance in its relations with the two nations.

Critics argue that Turkey may have used its influence over Somalia to secure an agreement that disproportionately benefits Ethiopia. If Ethiopia gains access to Somalia’s coastline, it would be a significant geopolitical victory for Addis Ababa but a blow to Somalia’s sovereignty. Moreover, such an arrangement could position Turkey to strengthen its ties with Ethiopia, prioritizing its strategic interests while undermining Somalia’s territorial integrity and long-term stability.

France’s involvement further complicates the regional dynamics. French President Emmanuel Macron’s discussions with Ethiopian leaders about sea access, coupled with France’s strategic interest in countering China’s growing influence in the Horn of Africa, have raised eyebrows. While Djibouti has offered Ethiopia access to its ports, France’s encouragement of Ethiopia to explore broader maritime options suggests that external powers may be pushing Ethiopia to look beyond Djibouti—potentially toward Somalia.

This dynamic has alarmed observers who view Somalia as a pawn in a larger geopolitical game. While France’s intentions may be aimed at enhancing its influence and diminishing China’s foothold, the consequences for Somalia could be devastating.

Ethiopia’s Targets: Sudan, Eritrea, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Djibouti and Egypt

Ethiopia’s broader plan extends beyond Somalia to include destabilizing key Red Sea nations such as Sudan, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt. The ongoing conflict in Sudan, for example, is not merely a localized issue but part of a larger strategy to weaken the country and prevent it from opposing Ethiopia’s ambitions. By creating chaos in Sudan, Ethiopia sets the stage for expanding its influence in the region.

Djibouti, a critical Red Sea nation, is also in Ethiopia’s sights. Ethiopia’s refusal to collaborate with Djibouti on maritime issues is not incidental—it aligns with Ethiopia’s long-term goal to isolate and dominate Djibouti. By cutting off potential Somalia support for Djibouti, Ethiopia positioned itself to launch a surprise takeover and eliminate foreign influences, such as China and Russia, that might hinder its plans.

The destabilization of the region is not Ethiopia’s effort alone. Other actors, such as the UAE, have contributed to weakening countries like Yemen, Somalia and Sudan. These actions align with Ethiopia’s objectives, creating a fractured environment that allows Ethiopia to act with minimal resistance.

A Call to Action

The Red Sea nations must recognize the urgency of the threat posed by Ethiopia’s ambitions. Sudan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia must unite to counter this growing danger. Somalia, despite its prolonged instability, holds the key to curbing Ethiopia’s plans. A strong Somali government with a capable military would be Ethiopia’s greatest obstacle and a stabilizing force for the region.

Djibouti, too, must act decisively to defend itself. Ethiopia’s plans to isolate and dominate Djibouti represent the first phase of a broader strategy to control the Red Sea and marginalize foreign powers that might interfere with its ambitions.

The Horn of Africa and the Red Sea region stand at a crossroads. Ethiopia’s unchecked ambitions, coupled with the involvement of external powers such as Turkey and France, could lead to widespread chaos, undermining regional stability and threatening the livelihoods of millions. The time to act is now. The nations of the region must heed this warning, set aside their differences, and take decisive steps to counter Ethiopia’s plans.

History has shown that complacency in the face of aggression leads to regret. The nations of the Red Sea must not make the same mistake. Regional unity and proactive action are the only paths to securing peace and stability in this critical part of the world.