An axis uniting China, Russia, Iran and North Korea—dubbed CRINK by some Western officials—has emerged from the war in Ukraine, a loose alliance united by a mutual disdain for the U.S.-led world order.
That coalition’s cooperation has steadily deepened as the four have exchanged food, oil, arms, diplomatic support and military assistance in a manner designed to remain beyond the reach of Western sanctions.
Now, President Trump’s determination to end the war creates a moment of truth for the entente. If he brokers a cease-fire, the bonds between the four could loosen.
But a failure to do so—along with greater U.S. pressure on Iran and China—could unintentionally deepen this “common market of autocracies,” says John Park, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, who focuses on Indo-Pacific security and economic statecraft.
China-North Korea
The only mutual defense treaty China has with any nation commits it and North Korea to support one another militarily if attacked, based on a July 1961 accord.
Iran-North Korea
While the two countries have no formal alliance, they have often touted their “traditional relations of friendship and cooperation.”
China-Iran
The two agreed to a 25-year strategic partnership in March 2021, involving Chinese investment in Iran and imports of discounted Iranian oil to China.
China-Russia
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping agreed to what they described as a “no limits” friendship in February 2022, days before Russia invaded Ukraine.
Russia-North Korea
North Korea leader Kim Jong Un and Putin signed a mutual defense pact last June in Pyongyang. Months later, North Korea sent thousands of troops to Russia to support Moscow’s war effort.
Russia-Iran
In January, Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a 20-year pact deepening military ties.
Cooperation between the four nations isn’t new. Russia and Iran allied to support the Assad regime in Syria, while China has long been North Korea’s main patron and Beijing and Moscow’s relationship has been deepening for years.
But the war multiplied those ties and helped knit the quartet together. The four are “promoting alternative systems to compete with the United States, primarily in trade, finance and security,” according to a recent assessment by U.S. spy agencies.
Russia’s need to fuel its war effort has put Moscow at the center of the entente. It has turned to Chinese firms for goods critical for making the arms it needs in Ukraine.
North Korea—itself long under international sanctions—has sent huge quantities of munitions as well as more than 12,000 soldiers to help Russia. Ukraine said last month that half of Russia’s ammunition now comes from North Korea. That support has helped Russia largely expel Ukrainian troops from its Kursk region. Lately, Pyongyang has engaged diplomatically with Moscow more than it has with Beijing.
Iran has provided Russia with drone expertise, giving it a critical boost in a conflict dominated by the use of unmanned aerial vehicles. Tehran has sent Shahed drones as well as blueprints and technical assistance for Russia to increase its own drone manufacturing.
Military cooperation has gone hand-in-hand with economic ties. Shut out by the West, Russia has redirected much of its energy exports to China, while Beijing—which doesn’t support the U.S.-led sanctions against Moscow—has in turn stepped up exports of consumer goods that Russia no longer receives from the West.
As their economies draw closer, China and Russia have increasingly used their own currencies for their trade, shunning the U.S. dollar. Using dollars makes them more vulnerable to sanctions, while both nations also harbor ambitions to boost their currencies’ influence in world trade.
In return for military support, Russia has allowed in thousands of North Korean workers, who earn valuable hard currency that is sent back to the regime. Moscow has sent technicians to support Pyongyang’s spy-satellite program, South Korean officials said. Russia has also boosted illicit oil shipments to North Korea.
As the world’s second-largest economy, China provides the economic ballast for the quartet, making it the indispensable partner for the entente. As a net importer of energy, China is a major market for Iranian and Russian energy. About 90% of Iranian oil goes to China.
An end to the war in Ukraine could drain the partnership of its staying power. Russia could try to mend relations with Europe, which would loosen its reliance on China. China—which is integrated in the global trading system in a way that the other three aren’t—may decide that supporting the axis isn’t worth jeopardizing its relations with the West.
If Moscow backs away from cease-fire talks, Trump has already threatened more sanctions and tariffs on Russia. Washington has also renewed its “maximum pressure” campaign on Tehran, threatening military action if Iran doesn’t rein in its nuclear program. U.S.-China relations are also tense, with Trump recently raising tariffs on billions of dollars of China imports.
If left unchecked, the nexus between Russia and North Korea, which both already possess nuclear arms, and Iran, which is nearly able to produce an atomic bomb, could prove a serious threat to the West, said Chivvis, the former intelligence officer, who is now a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
“What we want to avoid is the deepening scenario, where they do actually build on the cooperation that we have seen over the last couple of years,” he said.