The global race to secure cobalt, lithium and rare earths, the minerals that underpin the electric vehicle revolution, is reshaping Africa’s resource-rich heartlands.

In the Congo Basin, home to two-thirds of the world’s cobalt reserves and vast deposits of lithium and coltan, the stakes could not be higher.

For Washington and Beijing, the contest is about strategic dominance over 21st-century supply chains. For African governments, it is an opportunity to convert mineral wealth into industrialisation and jobs. For millions living on the land, it is all too often a familiar story of displacement, conflict and broken promises.

“Africa doesn’t just supply minerals. It supplies the future of clean energy,” says Patrick Kipalu, Africa programme director at the Rights and Resources Initiative. “The question is whether African people will have a share in that future,” he tells The Africa Report.

A new scramble

China has spent two decades entrenching its dominance in Congolese mining, investing billions in infrastructure and locking in long-term concessions. Now Washington is scrambling to claw back influence.

The Trump administration recently sealed a controversial agreement with Kinshasa, tying US access to the Democratic Republic of Congo’s (DRC) mineral reserves to expanded security assistance in the east, a region convulsed by conflict with Rwanda-backed M23 rebels.

For Daniel van Dalen, a Great Lakes analyst, the deal is driven less by altruism than ambition. Beyond Trump’s “ego and trying to win a Nobel peace prize,” he argues, it is “very much a geopolitical calculation. The US has been highly transactional with both the DRC and Rwanda as the administration pursues its agenda on critical minerals and global dominance.”

This is Africa’s moment. We can either repeat those mistakes or build a just green economy that lifts people out of poverty. Consent is cheaper than conflict. Ignoring communities will cost more than listening to them

Experts warn the Kinshasa-Washington pact risks ushering in a dangerous new era of securitised extraction, where mineral access is guaranteed by foreign military support rather than accountable governance.

“If structured around human rights, equity and justice, such deals could help stabilise the region,” says Rights and Resources Initiative’s Kipalu. “But if not, they will worsen conflict, corruption and land-grabbing, perpetuating cycles of violence that have already lasted 30 years.”

François Conradie, lead political economist at Oxford Economics Africa, is more blunt: “There is a risk of the DRC losing sovereignty if it allows a private military company incentivised by resource extraction to operate on its soil. As Malians are learning from Russian mercenaries, the crimes committed by operators of this kind tend to make conflict more vicious rather than control it.”

Resource nationalism returns

Elsewhere, African leaders are experimenting with ways to claw back value. Zimbabwe and Zambia have banned exports of raw lithium, insisting companies build processing facilities locally.

“The export restrictions in Zimbabwe and Zambia reflect their desire for more local benefits,” says Kipalu. “Foreign investment is vital, but it must align with development priorities, not repeat the colonial pattern of resource appropriation.”

Yet without reliable infrastructure, financing and technical capacity, Kipalu cautions, such policies risk driving away investors without building the industries they promise.

Mining projects are capital-intensive and long-term. US and Chinese firms will always hedge against governments renegotiating terms

Conradie agrees the focus must go deeper than royalties or corporate tax. “Every country and every project is different,” he notes. Generally, he adds, negotiations with mining firms deliver more when they widen the scope beyond revenues to include investments in roads, skills and industries that strengthen the broader economy.”

Haunted by history

The green mineral boom arrives with heavy historical baggage. Angola’s oil wealth fuelled corruption and war; Sierra Leone’s diamonds paid for civil conflict; Zambia’s copper left it trapped in debt.

“This is Africa’s moment,” Kipalu says. “We can either repeat those mistakes or build a just green economy that lifts people out of poverty. Consent is cheaper than conflict. Ignoring communities will cost more than listening to them.”

More than half of global mineral projects are located on indigenous or community lands. In the Congo Basin, that often translates into forced evictions, deforested landscapes and polluted rivers. Far from being a barrier to development, Kipalu argues, recognising land rights is the foundation of stability and shared prosperity.

A fight for leverage

While China controls most of Congo’s cobalt concessions and dominates global refining capacity, Van Dalen argues that Washington’s push is less about dislodging Beijing than slowing its advance.

It will take a long time before any increased earnings translate into a tangible improvement in the everyday life of the average Congolese

Vast deposits of lithium remain untapped, and US-backed KoBold Metals recently announced it has secured seven exploration permits alongside a $1bn investment pledge. The move, he says, will not overturn China’s dominance overnight, but it does signal Kinshasa’s willingness to favour Western – or at least American – investment. The aim is not to expel China but to curb its expansion as the US seeks to catch up.

With Donald Trump vowing to prioritise US access, and Beijing already deeply entrenched, African states face mounting pressure.

Kipalu argues they still have leverage: the world cannot decarbonise without African minerals. That advantage, he warns, will be squandered unless governments strengthen governance, demand local processing and ensure revenues are reinvested transparently.

However, in the DRC, Van Dalen says precedent suggests that any greater value or revenue derived from the sector is unlikely to trickle down to the population. “Yes, we may see touted investments in social services or infrastructure,” he says, “but corruption remains rife and political interests are vast. It will take a long time before any increased earnings translate into a tangible improvement in the everyday life of the average Congolese.”