Belief in a cocoa ‘OPEC’, despite headwinds. That was the mood on 1 October in Abidjan at the launch of the marketing campaign for the new crop – the big annual set-piece for “brown gold” in Côte d’Ivoire, the world’s top producer.

The ceremony, led by President Alassane Ouattara – who is seeking a fourth term in the 25 October poll – drew some 8,000 smallholders and was marked by the record farm-gate price of CFA2,800 per kilo.

A few years ago Indonesia was touted as the rising force, with 600,000-700,000 tonnes. Today it produces only about 160,000 tonnes

That price reflects the surge in world cocoa prices that began in early 2023 and has stayed high since.

It also stems from efforts by Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana – the world’s second-largest producer – to secure better pay for their farmers.

Accra targets 650,000 tonnes

Together Abidjan and Accra supply close to half of the world’s cocoa.

Since 2018 they have teamed up – through the Coffee-Cocoa Council (CCC) and the Ghana Cocoa Board (Cocobod) – in a grouping dubbed the ‘cocoa OPEC’, to wield more clout in the globalised chocolate market.

Beyond the shared goal of raising smallholders’ incomes, both countries want to align policy to:

• Improve bean quality
• Keep the sector sustainable
• Ramp up local processing

Even so, a worry hung over the festivities – that Ghana, which in August set a farm-gate price of about CFA2,500 per kilo, could soon be knocked into third place by Ecuador.

For this season, Accra should hold on to second, with a 2025-2026 crop put at 650,000 tonnes by Cocobod, versus a 570,000-tonne forecast for Quito. However, the league table could flip as soon as the following season.

Ecuador already has its client base. But we are watching it – it could, in time, change the game for African producers

Ecuador’s cocoa sector is booming. It is aiming for 650,000 tonnes by 2026-2027 – a level Ghana, which has lost momentum in recent years, may struggle to match.

Any Ghanaian slippage would weaken its tandem with Côte d’Ivoire and, by extension, hurt Abidjan too.

CFA400bn a season

Côte d’Ivoire, for its part, expects about 1.8m tonnes in 2025-2026 and is trying to keep a cool head. In his speech, President Ouattara hailed the partnership with Ghana.

CCC boss Yves Brahima Koné highlighted a value chain that lets the Ivorian regulator collect some CFA400bn per season, thanks in part to the living income differential (LID) of $400 a tonne that Abidjan and Accra have imposed on multinationals.

“We are not worried,” said a senior official at the Côte d’Ivoire–Ghana Initiative, which oversees the two countries’ collaboration.

“A few years ago Indonesia was touted as the rising force, with 600,000-700,000 tonnes. Today it produces only about 160,000 tonnes.”

The point – it is hard for new producer countries to break through and stay there.

At the same time, he added, Ghana is betting on a rebound by mass distribution of new high-yield cocoa seedlings. Cocobod launched a programme in 2022 to hand out about 140m plants.

What the industry thinks

Traders and grinders welcome Ecuador’s rise as a way to diversify origins – though they still rate West African beans higher, and note that Ecuadorian soils contain cadmium.

“Ecuador already has its client base,” said an executive at a bean-trading house. “But we are watching it – it could, in time, change the game for African producers.”