When Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi welcomed Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki to Cairo this week, the official agenda read like a checklist of regional priorities; the Horn of Africa, Sudan’s crisis and the Red Sea’s security.

Yet the subtext was unmistakable: how far Ethiopia can go in reclaiming its long-lost access to the sea.

The visit came less than 24 hours after Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed delivered a fiery address to parliament, describing Ethiopia’s lack of a seaport as an “existential issue”.

Abiy questioned the legality of the country’s loss of Red Sea access after Eritrea’s independence in 1993, arguing that “no cabinet, parliament, or public referendum ever decided such a matter”.

While Abiy insisted that Addis Ababa seeks a peaceful, diplomatic path to regain maritime access, his tone – warning that Ethiopia possesses “reliable capabilities” should conflict arise – sent ripples through the region.

Ethiopia’s case for the sea

In Addis, officials have portrayed the prime minister’s remarks as a call for dialogue, not confrontation.

The premier reiterated that Ethiopia has “no desire for war,” but that its population and economic growth make maritime access “a matter of survival”.

“The prime minister is echoing a long-standing national sentiment,” says Abraham Meselu, lecturer and security analyst at Werabe University.

“Every Ethiopian understands that access to the sea is vital. What is debatable is the timing and tone, raising it during internal instability makes it appear securitised.”

Abraham argues that the government’s legal framing, questioning how Ethiopia “lost” Assab without institutional approval, may resonate domestically but risks agitating neighbours already wary of Addis Ababa’s ambitions.

“The legitimacy of the quest is clear,” he says, “but the approach must remain anchored in diplomacy, not parliamentary rhetoric that stirs security anxieties.”

Asmara’s immediate pushback

Eritrea reacted swiftly. Information minister Yemane Ghebremeskel, in a post on X, accused Ethiopia’s ruling Prosperity Party of succumbing to “the illusion of prosperity”, calling Abiy’s remarks a symptom of political “delusion”.

Asmara insists the issue is non-negotiable, arguing that any attempt to reopen discussion about Eritrean sovereignty over its [Assab] port constitutes a violation of international law.

Every Ethiopian understands that access to the sea is vital

In a statement released ahead of Isaias Afwerki’s departure for Cairo, the Eritrean government reiterated that Eritrea’s independence and borders are settled facts, and that Addis Ababa’s rhetoric risks “reawakening old hostilities”.

Yet in his own recent remarks, Prime Minister Abiy maintained that “Ethiopia seeks no war with Eritrea”.

He called on the international community – including the US, China, Russia, and the AU – to help mediate a peaceful, legal solution.

“Our priority is peace and dialogue,” Abiy told lawmakers. “But if the [Eritrea] chooses war, the result is obvious.”

Egypt’s strategic embrace

Against this backdrop, Al-Sisi’s meeting with Isaias appeared far from coincidental.

The Egyptian presidency described the encounter as an effort to “strengthen strategic coordination” on regional stability and Red Sea security.

Al-Sisi praised “the enduring relations between Cairo and Asmara” and highlighted opportunities for economic cooperation, but security analysts saw strategic calculation behind the pleasantries.

“Cairo wants to preserve its historic influence over the Red Sea and the Suez Corridor,” says Terefe Beshane, lecturer at the Ethiopian Defence University and a regional security analyst.  

“Egypt sees Ethiopia’s port ambitions as a potential challenge to its dominance. Supporting Eritrea, even symbolically, helps contain that risk.”

According to Egyptian officials, the Cairo talks reaffirmed the Asmara Summit Declaration signed in October 2024 by Egypt, Eritrea and Somalia, which emphasised “respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all regional states”.

Terefe interprets that phrase as a subtle rebuke to Addis Ababa’s maritime overtures, especially as Ethiopia focused on reclaiming the port of [Assab] earlier this week.

The legitimacy of the quest is clear, but the approach must remain anchored in diplomacy, not parliamentary rhetoric that stirs security anxieties

Still, the unspoken focus of their talks remains Ethiopia.

“The Cairo-Asmara coordination is less about friendship than about managing Addis Ababa,” Terefe tells The Africa Report.

“Both countries want to ensure that Ethiopia’s maritime aspirations unfold within limits they can influence.”

Terefe believes the emerging axis could “create a soft containment strategy” – diplomatic rather than military – to remind Ethiopia that regional cooperation must precede any unilateral move toward the Red Sea.

A delicate regional moment

With conflicts raging in Sudan and tensions simmering between Ethiopia and Somalia, the Red Sea corridor has re-emerged as one of Africa’s most strategic fault lines.

Egypt’s naval power, Eritrea’s coastline position, and Ethiopia’s demographic and economic weight make the region’s balance more precarious.

While Cairo and Asmara appear to be on the same page for the time being, analysts warn that their collaboration is tactical rather than long-term.

Both face domestic constraints: Egypt grappling with economic stress and Eritrea with isolation.

“The Horn is entering a period of strategic recalibration,” says Terefe.

“Ethiopia is asserting itself, Egypt is guarding its turf and Eritrea is seeking relevance. Whether they talk or clash will define the Red Sea’s future.”

For Abiy, whose government faces economic strain and internal conflict, reopening the Red Sea question could be a risky yet rallying political move, says Abraham.

His call for international mediation suggests an effort to frame Ethiopia’s case within a legal and diplomatic track, avoiding isolation while keeping the issue alive.

“Everyone agrees Ethiopia needs the sea. The question is how and at what cost to regional stability,” Abraham tells The Africa Report.