“Threat alert in Madagascar.” With these words, Syntia Randriambololona – a political influencer with a massive following on the ‘Great Island’ despite living in the Paris region – ignited a firestorm on 3 January. Her post concerned a Russian delegation’s visit to Antananarivo in late December, an event that has left the country’s political class on edge.

In a terse message, she listed the “threats” currently haunting the Malagasy opposition: the “landing of 40 Russian military personnel destined for the Iavoloha presidential palace” and the delivery of “43 crates and packages containing weaponry”.

The facts, while less cinematic, remain significant. In late December, Colonel-President Michaël Randrianirina – who ousted former president Andry Rajoelina – received an official delegation mandated by Vladimir Putin. The meeting included Andrei Averyanov, the number two of the GRU (Russian military intelligence) and head of Africa Corps, the organisation that succeeded the Wagner Group’s mercenary network.

While the presidency remained silent, the Speaker of the National Assembly, Siteny Randrianasoloniaiko – Moscow’s primary intermediary in the capital – took to Facebook to provide “transparency”. He shared images of a Russian Ilyushin aircraft on the tarmac, alongside crates revealing AK-47 assault rifles and a drone. He insisted the delivery was “entirely legal” and aimed at “strengthening the capabilities of the Malagasy army”.

A diplomatic tightrope

Two weeks later, the tone has shifted. Speaking to our sister magazine, Jeune Afrique, Randrianasoloniaiko appeared notably more cautious. While he has not deleted his December posts, he now claims to be unaware of the exact nature of the discussions or the contents of the cargo. “I did not personally meet any members of the Russian delegation,” he stated, a sharp pivot from his earlier detailed reports.

This sudden reticence suggests a presidency wary of international blowback. While the Russian embassy confirmed the meeting with the head of state, it declined to provide further details. According to insiders, Moscow is currently “testing” the new authorities.

“Russia likely remembers the disastrous 2018 partnership between Ferrum Mining and the state-owned Kraoma S.A., which cost millions and yielded nothing,” notes a political adviser familiar with the administration.

Balancing Paris and Moscow

President Randrianirina appears determined to avoid choosing sides. Since his October 2025 inauguration, he has carefully balanced his diplomatic calendar:

• 21 October: Received Russian Ambassador Andrey Andreev.
• 23 October: Met with French Ambassador Arnaud Guillois.
• 20 November: Gave his first international interview to Russia Today.
• 5 December: Gave a follow-up interview to France 24.

“France has no reason to be concerned about our positioning. We can work with everyone,” the President assured during his appearance on Russian state television.

Relations with Paris remain delicate. The “clumsy” remarks made by Emmanuel Macron following the exfiltration of former president Rajoelina on a French aircraft still sting. However, economic reality dictates pragmatism: French giants like Orange, TotalEnergies, and Colas maintain a massive footprint in the country, whereas Russian commercial presence remains marginal.

The scramble for minerals: Washington and Beijing

It is not just a two-way tussle between the old colonial power and the Kremlin. Washington is also moving its pieces. A delegation from the Trump administration visited Madagascar from 4 to 6 January. While the identities of the envoys remain undisclosed, the mission follows a November visit by Major General Matthew Trollinger, chief of staff for US Africa Command (Africom).

Furthermore, reports suggest Randrianirina secretly met with the controversial founder of Blackwater, Erik Prince (now of Vectus Global), during a trip to Dubai in December. The US interest is primarily economic; Madagascar is a critical source of rare earth elements. Two American firms currently hold the keys to the island’s largest deposits:

• Harena Ressources: Controlling the Ampasindava site.
• Energy Fuels: Operating the Ranobe deposit near Toliara.

Not to be outdone, Beijing is also courting the new regime. In mid-December, a high-level Malagasy delegation, including the Ministers of Mines and Energy, travelled to Jakarta to meet with executives from the Chinese mining titan Tsingshan. The world leader in steel and nickel production is reportedly eyeing Madagascar’s coal and iron reserves.

As Randrianirina enters his first full year in office, the ‘Great Island’ finds itself at the centre of a new geopolitical map, where the prize is no longer just regional stability, but the essential minerals of the 21st century.