An interesting post from Oil and Glory noting an evolutionary shift in the oil business that will see the growing marginalization – and probable absolute shrinkage – of Big Oil over the next decade and beyond, in favor of the New Seven Sisters. The main reason, according to the article, is that the oil majors:

“…can’t maintain the foundation of their value – how much oil and natural gas they possess in total, or their so-called booked reserves. State-owned oil companies in Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and elsewhere control between 80% and 90% of the world’s oil reserves, leaving the oil majors the remainder, and that is a slender reed indeed. Some of the majors may actually replenish their reserves for the short term, or even in some individual years beyond that. But they can’t do so over the long term.

So what should energy investors consider instead:

“…one could go for where the real, long-term growth will come – in the service companies like FMC, Schlumberger or Halliburton, or pure drilling plays.

These companies are going to be used more and more as a replacement for Exxon, Chevron, BP, ConocoPhillips, Shell, Total — the states will identify the fields to be developed, and simply hire the service companies as contractors to bring them to market. It is they who will pocket the big margins, and not Big Oil.”