A Closer Look At The Next Eleven (N11)

While we do not endorse Nicholas Vardy’s Global Guru service, we did find a recent newsletter interesting due to its focus on other emerging economies.  As the report noted:

“…Investment bank Goldman Sachs compiled a list called the “Next 11” (N11) back in 2005 — countries it thinks can rival the BRICs in terms of investment prospects over the coming decades. Goldman Sachs’ list included Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, South Korea, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, Turkey and Vietnam. With the combined population of the N11 adding up to slightly less than that of China, no single country is likely to match that emerging economic superpower’s impact on the global economy. That said, it’s likely that a handful of the up-and-coming N11 countries like Indonesia, Vietnam and Turkey will put more money in your brokerage account than investing in China or the other BRIC countries.

#1 Indonesia

As the world’s largest Muslim nation with a population of almost 248 million, Indonesia is the fourth-most populous country in the world after China, India, and the United States. Already among the top 20 economies in the world in terms of GDP, the Indonesian economy is also on track to grow about 4% this year, making it one of only a handful of major economies — including China and India — that the International Monetary Fund expects to expand in 2009.

Since taking office in 2003, the current government has ended its civil war with renegade provinces; brought state spending under control; and launched a popular anti-corruption drive, jailing senior politicians and central bank officials. Investment bank Morgan Stanley’s research has proposed that as Southeast Asia’s largest economy, Indonesia should be the next country to join the elite group of BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) emerging economic powers. This is consistent with Indonesia’s ambitions. As Emil Salim, a presidential adviser and former cabinet minister summed it up: “Our target is to put another ‘I’ into BRIC… Achieving that in five years is possible.”

#2 South Korea

With a population of only 49 million — about the size of Italy — South Korea clearly operates on a smaller scale than its higher profile BRIC rivals. At the same time, in many ways, calling South Korea an “emerging market” is unfair. Half a century ago, South Korea’s economy was as poverty stricken as Upper Volta. South Korea has transformed itself into the world’s 10th-largest economy, and its per capita annual income grew from US$87 in 1962 to US$24,800 today.

Korean companies are also far more advanced than rivals in China or India. South Korean companies like Samsung have become synonymous with cutting-edge technology, sleekly designed mobile phones and flat screen TVs. Once the butt of late night TV jokes, Korean automobile manufacturers such as Hyundai have surpassed German rivals Mercedes and BMW in quality surveys. Today, Samsung has sales of $120 billion — more than double that of Microsoft. Samsung’s stock market capitalization, at over $86 billion, is almost three times that of Sony and is second only to Apple among consumer electronics companies.

#3 Vietnam

Vietnam’s economic growth rate nearly rivals that of China and India, with its economy expected to grow at 8% over the next five years. Even the global credit crunch couldn’t derail Vietnam from its growth path. The Vietnamese economy grew an estimated 3.9% in the first six months of 2009 and is expected to expand at a rate of 5% this year. Vietnam’s young, well-educated population of close to 90 million ensures that it will have an ample supply of the right kind of workforce. The government has launched a large-scale privatization program. Vietnam joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in January and is attracting a flood of foreign direct investment (FDI).

#4 Turkey

With a population of 72 million, Turkey is perched on the strategically important border of Europe and Asia. A perennial candidate for entry into the European Union, negotiations between Turkey and the EU have stalled because of Turkey’s lack of reform programs and general “enlargement fatigue.”

Once an economic basket case, Turkey got its economic act together over the last decade as it reined in inflation, and saw its average economic growth reach nearly 6% between 2002 and 2008. Hit hard by the credit crunch, the Turkish economy shrank 13.8% in the first quarter. Overall, Turkey’s economy is likely to contract 5.2% in 2009, although GDP will likely grow at an annual rate of 3.7% by Q4, as Germany and France, the two largest export markets for Turkey in the eurozone, have emerged from recession.

Turkey’s stock market has been one of the top performers in the world in 2009. The Istanbul stock market has soared, as Turkey’s Central Bank reduced its interest rates to a record low. The banking sector, which makes up around 40% of the market, has benefited disproportionately.

#5 Mexico

With a population of about 110 million, Mexico’s economy is Latin America’s second largest after Brazil, and the 11th largest in the world. Its membership in the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and its dependence on the United States is both its bane and its blessing. With around 80% of Mexico’s exports going to the United States, Mexico’s economic fate is closely linked to that of the United States.

Mexico’s economy contracted 10.3% in the second quarter year-over-year. The country’s Central Bank estimates the economy will shrink up to 7.5% in 2009. That said, the nation’s economy likely has already bottomed, and Mexico may be out of recession as I write this.

Although its manufacturing sector has lost out to China in recent years, Mexico has succeeded in attracting $4 billion in foreign direct investment so far this year. The government also has been pouring money to upgrade infrastructure, including railways, telecommunications, airports and natural gas distribution. Its short-term challenges notwithstanding, if Mexico continues its present rate of growth, its economy is set to overtake France and the United Kingdom by 2035…”



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WILDCATS AND BLACK SHEEP
Wildcats & Black Sheep is a personal interest blog dedicated to the identification and evaluation of maverick investment opportunities arising in frontier - and, what some may consider to be, “rogue” or “black sheep” - markets around the world.

Focusing primarily on The New Seven Sisters - the largely state owned petroleum companies from the emerging world that have become key players in the oil & gas industry as identified by Carola Hoyos, Chief Energy Correspondent for The Financial Times - but spanning other nascent opportunities around the globe that may hold potential in the years ahead, Wildcats & Black Sheep is a place for the adventurous to contemplate & evaluate the emerging markets of tomorrow.