Africa: No Major Changes In Forecast

Via Emerging Markets Insights, a look at African economic growth rates in the past month and a likely forecast ahead:

Middle East & Africa

Relatively high commodity prices are supporting government spending plans for most oil and gas exporters in the Middle East and Africa. If rising tensions involving Iran and Israel turns into a conflict, then commodities prices will climb to much higher levels and stoke inflation regionally. Import-dependent economies in East Africa, North Africa, and the Middle East are particularly vulnerable to commodity price spikes that undermine consumer spending power and make it difficult for SMEs to meet their financial obligations

Algeria: The export-oriented economy is exposed to eurozone volatility due to trade with European markets

Angola: Massive oil diversification budget spending continues this year, which means more opportunities for consumer goods and healthcare MNCs

Egypt: The country’s economy remains on the brink, though investors are hopeful that an IMF deal will provide short-term relief

Ghana: The economy remains strong due to government spending and natural resource riches, though new tax policies are a concern for investors

Iran: The local environment is increasingly precarious due to a combination of economic distress and covert military activity

Iraq: The country’s short- and long-term growth outlooks are positive, supported by increased oil production capacity and elevated global prices

Israel: Apple’s commitment to the Israeli technology sector demonstrates the attractiveness of the country’s tech industry right now

Kenya: Parliament’s bid to unseat the head of the central bank head is only the latest example of domestic political discord

Morocco: Government spending keeps growth positive, but the eurozone casts a long shadow as a fall in remittances impact Moroccans

Nigeria: Strong growth will not be derailed, though inflation and security risks pose challenges to the economy

Saudi Arabia: Economic fundamentals underpin a strong outlook, though MNCs should monitor regional tensions

South Africa: The budget offers opportunities for investment and tax relief to citizens, though alcohol and tobacco tax hikes will sting some MNCs

Tanzania: Inflationary growth continues to place pressure on consumers and the economy

UAE: Tighter Iran sanctions will benefit the UAE through increased oil demand, but a critical trade relationship will suffer

This entry was posted on Friday, March 9th, 2012 at 3:17 am and is filed under Uncategorized.  You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.  Both comments and pings are currently closed. 

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Wildcats & Black Sheep is a personal interest blog dedicated to the identification and evaluation of maverick investment opportunities arising in frontier - and, what some may consider to be, “rogue” or “black sheep” - markets around the world.

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