Pakistan and the United States, long bound by a security-centric relationship, may be on the cusp of a transformation as Islamabad explores proposals to attract the newly inaugurated Trump administration with stakes in its critical mineral reserves and other business ventures.

The prospect gained traction when U.S. businessman Gentry Beach, believed to be close to U.S. President Donald Trump, visited Pakistan earlier this month, promising billions in investments for mining and mineral projects.

“America cares about Pakistan. And I believe that together we can be very strong,” Beach said. “And we need Pakistan. You are our front face in this entire region, very important,” he continued, expressing optimism for bright future bilateral ties and economic cooperation between the two countries.

“Pakistan has something that America needs, and America has something that Pakistan needs,” Beach said, referencing the country’s mineral reserves. “That’s a wonderful situation for both of us to be in.”

It is too early to determine if Beach’s view aligns with a policy change in the Trump-led White House. His visit comes amid widespread concern in Pakistan about Washington’s disinterest in the country, following its withdrawal from Afghanistan and the geopolitical complexities surrounding the region.

The Pakistan-U.S. relationship has historically been dominated by security cooperation, with limited economic engagement. Bilateral trade between the two nations stands at a modest $6 billion annually, heavily tilted in favor of Pakistan exports.

For Pakistan, increased U.S. investment in its mineral sector could provide a much-needed economic boost, create jobs, and enhance infrastructure development. However, the success of this implausible pivot hinges on Pakistan overcoming significant geopolitical and domestic challenges to inflame Washington’s interest in a convincing manner.

Pakistan’s mineral wealth is vast but underdeveloped. The Reko Diq mine in Balochistan, one of the world’s largest untapped copper-gold reserves, holds an estimated 5.9 billion tons of ore. Similarly, northern regions like Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are believed to harbor lithium reserves, critical for renewable energy technologies. The Thar coalfield in Sindh, with 175 billion tons of lignite, further underscores Pakistan’s resource potential.

However, Pakistan’s efforts to entice the United States face tough geopolitical obstacles. For instance, India’s growing influence in Washington, particularly as a strategic partner in the Indo-Pacific, overshadows Pakistan’s outreach. The U.S. views India as a counterbalance to China, making Pakistan’s historical rivalry with India and its close ties with Beijing a complicating factor.

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a cornerstone of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), has further strained Pakistan-U.S. relations. Washington perceives CPEC as a tool for expanding Chinese influence, raising doubts about Pakistan’s ability to position itself as a neutral partner.

Additionally, the U.S. disengagement from Afghanistan has diminished Pakistan’s strategic relevance. Once a key ally in the war on terror, Pakistan now finds itself sidelined as Washington has seemingly shifted its focus to the Indo-Pacific.

Pakistan’s domestic landscape presents its own set of challenges. Most of Pakistan’s critical mineral reserves are located in Balochistan, a region grappling with insurgency and distrust of federal projects. Balochistan’s security issues, coupled with a history of contract disputes, such as the Reko Diq international arbitration case, might deter foreign investors. Corruption, bureaucratic inefficiencies, and inadequate infrastructure could further erode confidence.

To attract U.S. investment, Pakistan must demonstrate its value as a reliable partner by offering transparent policies, ensuring security guarantees, and diversifying its foreign policy to reduce over-reliance on China.

While critical minerals and business proposals offer a potential conduit to revitalize Pakistan-U.S. relations, they are unlikely to overshadow the broader strategic considerations that currently define the bilateral dynamic. At best, the Trump administration is likely to engage incrementally, testing Pakistan’s capacity to deliver on its promises, rather than committing to transformative partnerships. In the best-case scenario, Pakistan could emerge as a key player in global supply chains, offering the U.S. an alternative to Chinese dominance in critical minerals. However, the road ahead is fraught with challenges, and the likelihood of a significant shift in Pakistan-U.S. relations remains uncertain.

For Pakistan, the comment from a U.S. businessman about investing in Pakistan presents a long-term play that demands unprecedented political unity, economic reforms, and diplomatic recalibration. Success on Pakistan’s part would require addressing U.S. concerns about transparency, geopolitical alignment, and security, while leveraging its mineral wealth to foster mutual economic benefits.

Islamabad’s bet on critical minerals is a bold move — one that could redefine its relationship with Washington, but only if it navigates the complex web of geopolitical and domestic obstacles with resolve and skill.