On 28 January, Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger jointly announced their withdrawal from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). They are expected to leave by January 2025.

By closing the door on the regional bloc, the three countries, united under the new Alliance of Sahel States, are foregoing the lowering of tariff barriers, the gradual progress of the African Continental Free Trade Area and the Common External Tariff put in place in 2015. Their new situation could reshape their economies, all of which ended 2023 on a solid growth note.

According to the latest estimates from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), taken from its World Economic Outlook report published in October 2023 and updated in January 2024, the trio outperformed the average growth for sub-Saharan Africa, which stood at 3.3% for 2023.

This is despite the sanctions imposed on them by ECOWAS, particularly in Niger. According to the IMF, this performance is attributable to strategic choices in several sectors of the economy.

Niger boosted by pipeline

Despite a context of economic fluctuations, Niger is heading towards a significant recovery in its economy, with growth forecast for 11.1% in 2024, according to IMF estimates. This performance follows a slowdown in growth to 4.1% in 2023, in contrast to 11.9% in 2022.

Ensure the sovereignty and development of our country on the basis of equitable sharing with the people

The IMF’s projection is largely underpinned by the commissioning on 1 November 2023 of the pipeline linking the oilfields of south-east Niger to the port of Sèmè in Benin. The 2,000km pipeline, which cost more than $6bn, is designed to facilitate the export of oil to the international market. Benin has refrained from applying economic sanctions, which would also penalise its economy.

Export capacity is estimated at 90,000 barrels per day (bpd) out of a total production of 110,000 bpd, with a production target of 200,000 bpd by 2026. The project has the potential to contribute half of the country’s tax revenues, according to officials. By 2022, they projected that these exports could account for a quarter of the country’s GDP, estimated at more than $13.6bn by the World Bank in 2020.

The significant increase in revenue from this project should compensate for the reduction in financial aid from Western partners. The government sees this contribution as a key lever for strengthening and diversifying the Niger economy.

“The resources resulting from exploitation will be used exclusively to ensure the sovereignty and development of our country on the basis of equitable sharing with the people,” said Niger’s prime minister, Ali Mahaman Lamine Zeine, at the commissioning ceremony.

Mali supported by its mines

Mali’s economy, which grew by 4.5% in 2023, is expected to stay on course, with the IMF forecasting growth of 4.8% this year. This slight increase is underpinned by the vitality of key sectors such as agriculture and telecommunications, but above all by mining.

This industry is benefitting from favourable new regulations linked to the introduction of a new mining code, which, Bamako says is designed to “increase national economic spin-offs, foster more inclusive local development and consolidate Mali’s sovereignty over its natural resources”.

Within this framework, the state can acquire up to a 30% stake in new mining projects. As a result, the Malian authorities expect to increase revenues from mining by 500 billion CFA francs (around $822m) a year.

With more than 101 tonnes of gold extracted in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council, Mali is the continent’s second-largest gold producer behind Ghana (127 tonnes). Lamine Seydou Traoré, Amadou Keita’s predecessor at the ministry of mines, said in March 2023 that gold accounts for 25% of the national budget, 75% of export revenues and 10% of the country’s GDP.

Mali also has other underexploited minerals and metals, such as iron, manganese and lithium.

Burkina Faso resilient due to farming

Despite the persistent security crisis in the region, Burkina Faso is also demonstrating economic resilience. With GDP growth estimated at 4.4% in 2023, up from 1.5% in 2022, the country is expected to maintain its momentum and reach 6.4% in 2024, according to IMF projections.

This performance is largely due to the development of the agricultural sector, which accounts for 20% of GDP and employs 60% of the population, according to World Bank figures.

Since May 2023, the government of Burkina Faso, led by transitional president Ibrahim Traoré, has been stepping up initiatives to support the sector.

A programme worth CFA500bn has been announced for the development of eight strategic sectors, along with a budget of CFA200bn to combat food insecurity and a CFA22bn plan to cultivate 11,000 hectares, with a production target of nearly 200,000 tonnes of cereals.