Via The Geotimes, an interesting look at the machinations around Central Asian hydrocarbon resources.  As the article notes:

“…Today for Central Asiatic countries of the Caspian project (via Russia), there are only two alternatives for the West and the East. The Western direction is represented by the trans-Caspian gas pipeline, which passes at the bottom of the Caspian Sea and joins central-Asian suppliers with Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey, and further with Europe.

However the Eastern direction is a much more serious alternative. General agreement concerning building a gas pipeline via Uzbek and Kazakh territories was reached on April 3, 2006 in Peking. The plan is to begin operation of the pipeline on the first day of 2009.

Russia, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan signed an agreement to build a Caspian gas pipeline on December 20, 2007. Thus, Moscow has managed to achieve serious success in advancing its interests as the gas supplier to the countries of Europe. However a number of details in the signed document are evidence of the fact that the “big oil and gas game” at the Eurasia space is by no means over.

Principal agreement about building of the Caspian oil and gas pipeline was reached in the process of negotiations of Russia, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan Presidents in Ashkhabad in May of 2007. The signing of the document was planned for the beginning of the autumn of 2007; however, it was put off several times. No doubt there was interest however, the chief reason for the delay is connected with the fact that the development of the by Caspian gas pipeline is not a necessity today. Gas, even for the first stage, will appear in the necessary volume only after 2012. Thus the document, signed on December 20, is more of a political significance than of gas transporting one. Today’s practical value of the by Caspian project is found in the sphere of global strategy, which decreases the chances for realization of the West lobbied Trans-Caspian pipeline detouring Russia.

The main intrigue of the signed documents is that instead of the planned 30 billion m3 per year the Caspian pipeline branch will transport only 20 billion m3 per year. In addition to that there are no strict guarantees in the agreement concerning the gas delivery into the new gas pipeline. By signing the agreement both Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan assumed the responsibility of providing the by-Caspian pipeline up to 20 billion m3 of gas per year (10 billion m3 each).

In search of explanations for this, experts find both political and resource reasons. It is clear that Turkmenistan is trying to remain free to diversify its supply routes or at least retain the opportunity for further negotiations in respect of Trans-Caspian gas pipeline. There were other additional circumstances as well.

One question is about a disagreement concerning the price for gas supplied through already existing pipeline branches. During autumn of last year, there was quite intensive haggling, resulting in a price of 130 USD per 1000 m3 for Russia, instead of the previous 100 USD per 1000 m3. Kazakhstan has also presented its conditions, considering it necessary to increase the price for its gas from 165 USD per 1000 m3 to 190 USD per 1000 m3 – this is the price for a profit from the Caspian project.

Signing an agreement over the Caspian gas pipeline is not a strike against plans for diversification of gas transporting routes. The Caspian gas pipeline cannot endanger an alternative project called Nabukko.

Nabukko is an Italian variant of the word Navukhodonossor, the name of the Assyria king who accomplished the Babylon Tower. It is unknown why the pipeline construction project was named that. However, there is no less passionate action around it than in the opera “Nabukko” by Italian composer Juzepe Verdi.

The EU is considering the Nabukko project a key one, in the hopes that it will allow to diversify gas supplies and decrease dependence on Russia that in the meanwhile is building alternatives to Nabukko’s routes.

According to plans, the Nabukko pipeline will start operating in 2011, and its operating capacity will be31 billions m3 of gas per year.

The future of Nabukko is connected with the perspectives of the Trans-Caspian project. So far, there are three potential suppliers of energy resources for the pipeline: Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. There is no distinct certainty about their gas resources. The fourth country is Iran.

Five participants of the Nabukko consortium have decided recently not to come to a final decision on the project until the first quarter of 2008. Originally, it was expected that they would make their decision at the end of 2007.

It is evident that realization of the new projects in the western direction will contribute to the delivery safety increase of Central Asiatic, Azerbaijanis energy resources to western countries. In any case economically sound strategy of transport routes diversification contributes to the increase of stability of the energy market and cost decrease….”