Equatorial Guinea is the proverbial paradox wrapped in an enigma.

For one, it is the sole Spanish-speaking nation on the continent despite its earlier history under Portuguese rule.

In theory a middle-income African nation of around 1.7 million souls, the economy floats on hydrocarbons and other minerals like bauxite, yet poverty remains shockingly high.

The country is run by the world’s longest serving president, the octogenarian Obiang Nguema, in office since 1979.

Elections are highly irregular, while the leader’s son and vice-president Teodoro Nguema Obiang is under investigation abroad for embezzlement and money laundering and subject to sanctions and asset seizures in the US, France, and the UK.

With the son seemingly set to continue the dynasty, the nation must convince investors of sustainable appeal going forward, which may open the door to geopolitical tension.

Cooking on gas?

Over 90% of the country’s exports are related to petroleum products, which confirms the need for diversification.

Structural transformation has been in evidence, whereby the stake of agriculture in employment had declined to 40% by 2019 from 55% in 1991, while industry’s share scaled 19% (10%) and services reached 41% (35%).

Yet this progress is limited by inadequate value chains required for sectoral growth and the mobilization of internal resources.
Meantime, other issues are curbing the hydrocarbon sector’s true potential.

US energy giants Exxon Mobil Corp and Marathon sank billions of dollars in Equatorial Guinea in the 2000s, and yet interest subsequently waned as Washington instead opted for internal production.

Thus, today, Equatorial Guinea produces roughly 80,000 BPD of crude per day, in stark contrast to a peak north of 300,000 BPD 20 years ago.

Back in 1996, Mobil Oil Corporation revealed huge new oil and gas reserves, and indeed, the development of new gas wells may raise gas production by 2025, according to the AFDB.

Yet, continually delayed project realization spells lost revenues that could expand the energy sector, ironically at a time when the Ukraine crisis opens up new opportunities.

Equatorial Guinea has recently inked an agreement with Cameroon to jointly develop oil and gas fields on their border, such as the Yoyo and Yolanda fields, the Etinde gas field, and the Camen and Diega fields, but this has met with delays.

The country’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) text aims for a 20% CO2 reduction by 2030 with 50% by 2050 from base 2010 levels.

Plans are also afoot for investment in hydropower and the greening of transportation.

The nation’s Hydrocarbon Law No. 8/2006 stipulates that all hydrocarbon operations be undertaken with environmental sensitivity granting the Ministry of Mines and Hydrocarbons to suspend any operations that fail to comply.

Law No. 7/2003 on the Environment goes further still by requiring that all companies submit environment protection plans, environmental impact studies, and rehabilitation plans to the Ministry. The shifting sands of realpolitik, however, will reveal over time whether such laws carry weight in the real world.

New frontier, or frontline?

With economic activity in the decade of 2013- 2023 shrinking by 4.1% per year on average, poverty languishes at close to 80%.

This vulnerability, compounded by the nature of the regime, invites unstable geopolitical intervention.

While Russian presence in Africa is not new—troops are present across the continent from Central African Republic to Mali—last November, US-based human rights body Equatorial Guinea Justice reported that around 200 military advisors had arrived, apparently to protect the incumbent regime.

It had survived a coup in 2004, backed by foreign business figures, and which famously implicated erstwhile UK Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher’s son, Mark.

Notably, the Russian team is likely to be protecting the regime’s future, namely the vice-president—the question is, in return for what?

Reportedly, these operatives are stationed in the capital, Malabo, an island in the Gulf of Guinea, and Bata, in the mainland between Cameroon and Gabon.

Consultancy revenues aside, the bigger picture seems to be a Russian foothold among the aforementioned natural resource reserves.

In November 2022, Presidents Putin and Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo met in Moscow to discuss bilateral possibilities, and Washington continues to warn against any sanctions breaking to aid Russia or its proxies.

New capital, new era?

In 2016, the government commenced relocation from the capital city, Malabo, to new premises at the nation’s still-under-construction new capital—Ciudad de la Paz—which is earmarked to house 200,000 people.

The new city’s name means ‘City of Peace,’ and the goal is to ease congestion in overcrowded coastal areas, but the government will need to establish employment opportunities for it to become more than a government city.

Astute readers will note a relatively high use of question marks in the article, and indeed, that particular punctuation perhaps best exemplifies the nation’s future, domestically and on the international stage.