Via Emerging Markets Insight, a highly interesting pair of charts analyzing the results of Frontier Strategy Group’s proprietary model to test the assumption that “emerging markets are decoupled from western economies (G7)”:
“…In 2008, we found that certain markets such as Nigeria and Peru were not only decoupled but provided multinationals with consistently high growth opportunities. Conversely, growth in markets such as Turkey, were highly dependent on a recovery in western economies.
Surprisingly, in 2011, our model shifted to indicate that emerging markets are no longer thought to be as decoupled as before. Very few markets such as Morocco and Indonesia provide above average growth opportunities with less dependence on the status of western markets.
In 2008 we built a model to understand the global impact of a recession:
2011 data shows markets are more coupled than before