The energy shock from the Gulf war has not derailed African growth. In the update to its Regional Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has even raised its 2026 forecast by 0.2 points to 4.5%, the same pace as in 2025.

According to Zeine Ould Zeidane, director of the IMF’s African Department, this resilience stems first and foremost from the “significant reforms” carried out in recent years, which made it possible to rebuild room for manoeuvre before the shock. But “the stability of regional growth masks very different national trajectories”, the report warns.

According to the projections, a few countries are clearly pulling the pack upwards. Among these larger economies, Ethiopia remains in a league of its own, with growth of 9.2% expected in 2026, then 7.8% in 2027. It is ahead of Rwanda (7.4%), Guinea (7.2%), Benin and Niger (7% each).

Guinea stands out as one of the few countries set to accelerate, with growth of 7.8% expected in 2027, thanks in particular to the start of production at Simandou. Next are Uganda (6.2%), Côte d’Ivoire and Tanzania (6%).

Oil and metal exporters power growth

Oil producers are also doing well, with their GDP growth forecasts revised upwards from 4.0% to 4.1%. The Nigerian economy is expected to grow by 4.2% and Angola’s by 4.4% (compared with 3.1% in 2025). “Countries that benefit from the terms of trade are doing well,” said Zeidane, who also cites metal exporters such as Zambia and the DRC, boosted by gold and copper. The current account surplus of oil-producing countries is expected to jump from 1.6% to 4.4% of GDP.

Resource-poor economies, by contrast, are slowing from 6.4% in 2025 to 6%, while their current account deficit widens from 3.4% to 5.8% of GDP. Côte d’Ivoire and Uganda have seen their growth forecasts slightly revised downwards. To compensate, the IMF advises relying on foreign direct investment, market access and its own programmes, with new agreements under negotiation with “more than a dozen countries”.

However, access to international financial markets is not guaranteed, the report cautions, as borrowing costs remain high.

“Limited buffers leave little room for another shock”, the IMF stresses. Although median debt is falling to 51.7% of GDP in 2026, interest payments continue to absorb 12% of public revenue on average, while bilateral aid is expected to fall by a further 12%. The institution recommends improving tax collection, because “there is still significant room for manoeuvre”, says Zeidane. Median inflation, meanwhile, is projected to rise from 3.4% in 2025 to 5% in 2027.

Another cause for concern: in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) and Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC) regions, banks are overloaded with sovereign securities, to the detriment of private credit. Yet “it is the private sector that will drive growth”, says Zeidane, who calls for greater mobilisation of domestic revenue and institutional investment (insurers, pension funds), which remains underdeveloped in these zones.

Middle East conflict and El Niño pose the biggest risks

The picture could darken further, as the IMF mainly anticipates headwinds. “The conflict in the Middle East could again disrupt energy supplies, investors could become more demanding of borrowing states, and international aid could fall again”, the report said.

The most worrying point is climate-related. According to an IMF simulation, one of the most intense El Niño episodes ever recorded would push agricultural prices up by 20% and cut median growth by 0.5 points in 2027, while adding 2.6 points to inflation. Southern Africa would be the most exposed. But the rise in food prices “will affect everyone”, warns Zeidane, particularly the Sahel, already weakened by “precariousness”.

“We are very optimistic about Africa”, the director nonetheless stresses, highlighting the continent’s youth and its working-age population, which is set to grow. That is provided, he specifies, that reforms continue, notably in governance, the business environment and integration into the economy: Africa could then become the “locomotive” of global growth.