A key piece of America’s low-carbon future sits in the steppes of Central Asia. The path there is not along the transportation corridors Xi Jinping is currently working to build from China to Europe. Nor does it lie in the pockets of Vladimir Putin and his gang who last month showed up in Kazakhstan en masse to woo their former colonial subjects. Instead, it passes through U.S. policymakers’ offices, businesses, and investors who today hold the unique opportunity to build upon America’s under-utilized diplomatic and commercial lead in the region. It’s high time for the U.S. to seize this initiative. Though few Americans may appreciate it, Central Asia is ours to lose.

Last week at COP28, 22 nations, including the U.S., Japan, France, the UK, and even Ukraine, officially pledged to triple their nuclear energy production by 2050, and this move is welcome: the world will need to find, create, and process more uranium. 

With massive new demand for clean energy and competition from expanding military arsenals, uranium supply is tight, and prices are soaring, with spot markets increasing 70% over the last 12 months. Last year, uranium mines could only meet 74% of world demand, with the balance pulled from civilian and military stockpiles. Hundreds of nuclear reactors are under construction, planned, and proposed.

As the world’s biggest uranium user, the U.S. should take notice. While America must increase its production first, our policymakers should also work to expand our investment and trade ties with other producer nations. 

Attention must turn to Astana, Kazakhstan – the capital of a sprawling Central Asian nation roughly the size of Western Europe with a population of just 20 million. On December 16, it marks its Independence Day. There is much to celebrate. Kazakhstan is the world’s largest uranium producer and home to its largest reserves.  In 2022, Kazakhstan produced 21,227 MT of uranium oxide (U₃O₈) equal to 43% of the world’s 49,335 MT total mined production.  This importance cannot be understated: Kazakh output exceeds the next four largest producers – Canada, Namibia, Australia, and Uzbekistan. The math and odds are on Kazakhstan.

Besides uranium, Kazakhstan is also home to two of the United States’ most significant international oil and gas investments worldwide. ExxonMobil and Chevron, the U.S.’s two most important oil and gas companies, have a combined $63 billion invested in Kazakhstan.  Eclipsed only by the Netherlands, the U.S. is Kazakhstan’s largest foreign investor.  U.S. direct investment in Kazakhstan is almost four times that of Russia, its northern neighbor with whom it shares the world’s longest land border and three million ethnic Russians.

Compared to China, home to 1.5 million ethnic Kazakhs in Xinjiang, U.S. investment is nearly three times as much. By contrast, the U.S. has $12 billion of foreign direct investment in Saudi Arabia and $4 billion in Qatar.  Even in Essequibo, Guyana, where Venezuela’s Nicholás Maduro is scheming for a land grab, Exxon Mobil’s current $11 billion investment and planned $13 billion expansion is less than the $28 billion it currently has in Kazakhstan.

Central Asia, long strategically undervalued by American policymakers and investors, holds staggering potential. Each day, 1.4 million barrels of oil flowfrom Kazakhstan to international markets, including Israel, one of its two leading suppliers. Notably, Kazakhstan is also a Muslimcountry, but it was among the first Muslim nations to condemn the attacks on Israel. This political courage should come as no surprise from a country that survived the worst of Soviet misrule and even now,while criticizing its illegal land grabs in Ukraine, must rely on Russia to export its oil. It’s the chutzpah of the steppes.

As Central Asia’s undisputed economic leader, Kazakhstan shares a track record of successful economic cooperation with the United States since 1990.  Next year it will head the B5 + 1, the “Business 5 + 1” format that expands on the commercial component of the Central Asia 5 +1 political dialogue (C5+1) that serves as the centerpiece of the U.S. joint relations with the five Central Asian states: Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and the Kyrgyz Republic.

Despite the U.S. dominating foreign investment in Kazakhstan, no sitting U.S. president has ever visited its gleaming new capital of Astana nor surveyed the massive U.S. investments at Tengiz. This supergiant field holds an estimated 25 billion barrels of oil in place. Besides Putin and Xi’s regular stops, France’s Emmanuel Macron made the trip last month, as did President Faure Gnassingbé of Togo.

The U.S. Congress still bizarrely withholds Permanent Normal Trade Relations, or most favored nation status, from Kazakhstan, which joined the WTO in 2015 and enjoys similar relations with every other NATO member and 162 other countries.  Instead, Congress chooses to group Kazakhstan with perennial losers Cuba, Iran, and North Korea and, since revoking their PNTR status in April 2022, now with Russia and Belarus.

A modicum of respect here is due.Thankfully, a pending bipartisan bill introduced by Rep. Jimmy Panetta (D-CA) to award Kazakhstan PNTR status can help rectify this. But as Congress scrambles in front of the holidays to provide Ukraine with a further $60 billion to push out Russian invaders from its territory, it might imagine the ghost of Christmas future in Kazakhstan.

Just weeks ago, Vladimir Putin and his crew rolled into Kazakhstan’s northern border city of Kostanay, founded by Russian settlers in 1879 The historical overlay was not lost on anyone. Seizing the moment as he began concluding remarks for the assembled guests, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev abruptly switched from Russian to Kazakh, surprising his Kremlin visitors and sending them scrambling for their headphones, before quickly switching back to Russian.  Chutzpah of the steppes.