Frontier Markets = Biggest Terrorist Risk Spots In The World?

Via Business Insider, a report on the biggest terrorist risk spots in the world, some of which correlate with some of the more popular frontier markets:

Maplecroft Terrorism Map

Leading global risk analytics firm Maplecroft has released its latest Terrorism and Security Dashboard. The dashboard tracked terrorist attacks over the 12-month period prior to July 1, and the results are bleak. 

Globally, fatalities from acts of terrorism rose by 30% to a recorded 18,668 deaths. During the same 12-month period, 9,471 attacks were recorded — an average of 26 a day. 

Iraq had the most recorded terrorist attacks within the time frame, with 3,158. Iraq is currently staving off a Sunni rebellion led by ISIS militants and a full-scale sectarian civil war. ISIS controls oil and gas infrastructure in Iraq, and the group has also made frightening advances toward the country’s largest dams. 

Despite the number of attacks in Iraq, Nigeria was the site of the deadliest terror attacks in the world. The Islamic militant group Boko Haram has intensified violence throughout the country and has struck in the key cities of Abuja and Lagos. Boko Haram kills an average of 24 people per attack. 

The highest increase in terrorist attacks worldwide took place in China, Egypt, Libya, and Kenya. With the exception of China, the increase in attacks has significantly affected each country’s economy. 

“Libya, Kenya, and Egypt are among a handful of countries to witness a significant increase in risk in the MTSD, and investor confidence in key sectors, including tourism and oil and gas, has been hurt,” says Jordan Perry, a Principal Political Risk Analyst at Maplecroft. “When faced with rising security costs and decreasing safety for their personnel, companies can, and do, reconsider their country-level commitments.”

Libya has found itself incapable of capitalizing on its vast oil fields as rival militias and terrorist organizations have blockaded ports, limited oil exports, and damaged state infrastructure. Meanwhile, tourism, a major source of revenue in both Egypt and Kenya, has taken a nose-dive as both countries struggle to provide security.

Although terrorist attacks have only had a negligible impact on China’s economy, Maplecroft predicts that the impact is likely to increase. China is exploring methods of hydrocarbon extraction in the restive province of Xinjiang, which is home to China’s Uyghur minority, which faces heavy discrimination. 

Worryingly for investors, the high-growth economies of Colombia, Nigeria, the Philippines, India, and Thailand are all listed as being at “high” or “extreme” risk of further terrorist attacks.  

“The dynamic nature of terrorism means individual events are impossible to predict,” Maplecroft CEO Alyson Warhurst said in a press release. “However, up-to-date global intelligence on the intensity, frequency, precise location, and type of attacks can help organizations to make informed decisions relating to market entry, security measures for in-country operations, duty of care obligations, supply chain continuity and risk pricing.”

This entry was posted on Wednesday, July 23rd, 2014 at 8:13 am and is filed under Uncategorized.  You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.  Both comments and pings are currently closed. 

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Wildcats & Black Sheep is a personal interest blog dedicated to the identification and evaluation of maverick investment opportunities arising in frontier - and, what some may consider to be, “rogue” or “black sheep” - markets around the world.

Focusing primarily on The New Seven Sisters - the largely state owned petroleum companies from the emerging world that have become key players in the oil & gas industry as identified by Carola Hoyos, Chief Energy Correspondent for The Financial Times - but spanning other nascent opportunities around the globe that may hold potential in the years ahead, Wildcats & Black Sheep is a place for the adventurous to contemplate & evaluate the emerging markets of tomorrow.