In late July 2025, dozens of jihadist fighters mounted on motorbikes descended on an army base in Dargo, central-eastern Burkina Faso. Men from the Jama’at Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM), an Al-Qaeda affiliate, encircled the base as bullets rained down. The attack was repelled, but the death toll stood at several dozen.

These deaths add to a long list: according to the NGO Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), more than 26,000 people – both civilians and military personnel – have died in Burkina Faso since 2015, with more than half of those deaths occurring in the past three years alone.

In addition to absorbing an ever-growing share of the state budget, insecurity and terrorism are weighing heavily on major sectors of the economy, particularly agriculture. National cotton production fell by 26% during the 2024-2025 season to approximately 286,000 tonnes.

Yet, a year earlier, the government had released 5bn CFA francs ($8.9m) to support the sector, aiming for a production increase of more than 50%.

“Insecurity has strongly affected cotton production in the region,” Issa Lompo, a 38-year-old producer in the east of the country, told AFP in August 2025. According to the Burkinabè ministry of commerce, cotton accounts for 4% of GDP and around 14% of export revenues, making it the second-largest export behind gold. ‘White gold’ supports around four million people in Burkina Faso.

Farmers flee insecurity

However, farmers often prefer to abandon their fields to seek refuge in urban centres. “In four years, more than 32,000 cotton farms have shut down in the region due to insecurity,” says Laurent Kadima, another producer from the east. Consequently, the Société Cotonnière du Gourma (SOCOMA), a regional cotton company, is in jeopardy.

Until now, this subsidiary of the French company Geocoton was the sector’s number two, behind the public entity Société des Fibres et Textiles (SOFITEX), which dominates with 80% of national production. On 9 July, SOCOMA suspended its activities and laid off nearly 800 employees. This decision, justified by ‘a lack of activity for three years’, looks set to aggravate the situation further and deprive some 60,000 producers in this region – which is particularly affected by jihadist incursions – of a market for their goods.

In December 2023, the country had more than two million internally displaced persons – one in 10 Burkinabès, according to the UN. And the trend is accelerating. In the first six months of 2025 alone, more than 230,000 people had to flee their homes due to violence. Around 70,000 had also found refuge in Côte d’Ivoire by last March – a figure that has already doubled since then.

Despite this deteriorating security situation, the Burkinabè economy is showing resilience.

“Real GDP growth is expected to reach 5% in 2025 and remain solid in 2026,” said Jaroslaw Wieczorek, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission chief for Burkina Faso, following his visit on 12 November.

The country currently benefits from two loan programmes with the IMF: an agreement under the Extended Credit Facility for $302m and another under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility for $122.7m. Public debt sits at around 59% of GDP, well below the community standard of 70%. Burkina Faso’s macroeconomic indicators are, therefore, rather favourable.

Growth driven by gold prices

However, GDP growth is essentially being driven by the recent surge in international gold prices.

“Strong gold exports should translate into a slight current account surplus in 2025 and in the short term,” says the IMF. Last year, the Burkinabè gold sector produced more than 60 tonnes of gold. The sector accounts for around 20% of tax revenues and more than 80% of export receipts. The precious metal helped fuel state coffers to the tune of 548bn CFA francs (€979m) in 2024.

It is a seam that President Ibrahim Traoré intends to mine until exhaustion. In June 2023, Endeavour Mining sold its stakes in the Boungou and Wahgnion gold mines to Lilium Mining, a company owned by Burkinabè entrepreneur Simon Tiemtoré. However, months later, Endeavour accused Lilium of missing payment deadlines and took legal action.

I don’t understand why we let multinationals exploit gold when we know how to do it

To settle the dispute, the Burkinabè state bought the mines, concluding three agreements with Endeavour for around $90m. In effect, Burkina Faso has nationalised two of the country’s most significant gold mines. Yet, the bulk of gold extracted in Burkina remains exploited by western multinationals.

Ouagadougou adopted a new mining code in July 2024. It allows the state to acquire a free stake of up to 15% in new mining projects, up from 10% previously. Furthermore, the state can “subscribe up to 30%, for itself and/or for the national private sector, for a fee, an additional participation in the capital of operating companies”.

In view of this reform, the Société de Participation Minière du Burkina Faso (SOPAMIB) was established with the ultimate objective of capturing a greater share of mining rents. “I don’t understand why we let multinationals exploit gold when we know how to do it. It is in this sense that I announced the withdrawal of permits. And we are going to do it ourselves,” said Traoré in October 2024, creating panic within the boardrooms of the companies concerned.

However, this declaration by the head of state was not followed by action, and ultimately no permits were withdrawn.

Serial nationalisations

The sovereignism of Traoré’s Burkina Faso is not confined to the mining sector. The state is putting pressure on the entire private sector. In early October, the government presented a bill obliging foreign companies with a turnover exceeding 5bn CFA francs to establish their headquarters in Burkina Faso.

Even more symbolic was the event on 25 November, when Traoré presided over a national ceremony in Komsilga, south of the capital. He inaugurated the Société Nouvelle Brasserie du Faso (SN BRAFASO) brewery, which has been revived thanks to an investment of more than 17bn CFA francs.

It is a victory over imperialism and a testament to the resilience of the Burkinabè people

The production unit, which had filed for bankruptcy some 15 years earlier, claims a production capacity of 600,000 hectolitres per year. “It is a victory over imperialism and a testament to the resilience of the Burkinabè people,” said the captain.

The plant will compete with BRAKINA-SODIBO, the country’s leading brewery and local subsidiary of the French beverage giant Castel, and the Indian-owned brewery LIBS, present since 2019 with its sorghum beer.

A few days earlier, the government announced it was taking control of the Société Nouvelle Huilerie et Savonnerie Citec (an oil and soap company). Until then, Geocoton, a subsidiary of the French group ADVENS, held 53% of the capital, the national cotton leader SOFITEX owned 34%, and local investors shared the remaining 13%.

This takeover comes after months of fruitless discussions between Ouagadougou and the French shareholder. The authorities have nonetheless pledged to compensate Geocoton, which did not respond to our requests for comment.

Following the closure of SOCOMA, this marks the second major setback for Abbas Jaber’s group in Burkina in a few months, as it appears forced to leave the country. “Burkina Faso is clearly no longer a destination envisaged by foreign investors,” says a major donor active in the country. “On the other hand, the Burkinabè private sector, although suffering, is surprisingly resilient and continues to invest.”

Payment delays lengthening

The Azalaï group, owned by Malian entrepreneur Mossadeck Bally, has just completed the reconstruction of its hotel in Ouagadougou. “The banking, insurance, telecoms and even gas sectors are holding up well,” says the donor. “Despite the particularly difficult context, local entrepreneurs are finding solutions, enduring and innovating.”

Nevertheless, companies dependent on public procurement – which until a few years ago stood at around 500bn CFA francs – are being hit hard. “This slump has been accentuated by the establishment of the Treasury Bank. Before its creation, each public or semi-public entity had its own bank account and paid its suppliers directly. Now, it is the Treasury Bank that makes these payments based on cash availability,” says a financier based in Abidjan, who asked not to be named.

The country is living in lethargy due to the security, humanitarian and indeed political crises that prevent serene development

This situation lengthens payment delays and weighs on corporate cash flow. “Many private Burkinabè companies are on public procurement life support,” he says. “Without it, they would collapse. For example, the hotel sector runs thanks to conferences and workshops organised by ministerial departments and state bodies. Despite its sharp slowdown, public procurement remains the engine that keeps the national economy turning.”

Capital flight?

The country also endures thanks to a generation of entrepreneurs established across several countries: Côte d’Ivoire, Togo, Benin and Burkina Faso. This geographic diversification allows them to keep their Burkinabè branches afloat. The flip side is that in 2023, Burkina Faso established itself as the leading foreign investor in Côte d’Ivoire, with around 350bn CFA francs of investment.

Is this the sign of massive capital flight towards a destination deemed more stable? Major mining operators, such as Endeavour and Fortuna Mining (formerly known as Fortuna Silver Mines), are disposing of their assets in Burkina Faso and investing in Côte d’Ivoire, taking with them subcontractors and key suppliers of mining goods and services.

“The country is living in lethargy due to the security, humanitarian and indeed political crises that prevent serene development,” says the financier. In short, far from the authorities’ well-oiled PR operations, the country’s economy is buckling. But, for the moment, it is not breaking.