Cooperation between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan in the field of transport and transit should be considered within the paradigm of intensifying regional interaction. In 2018, the Central Asian countries, at the highest levels, actualized the issue of rapprochement of their transport and communication systems in order to expand the transit potential of the region. Tashkent and Dushanbe are making great efforts to implement this task, which aligns with the national transport strategies of both countries. Tajikistan has adopted a “State Target Development Program of Transport Complex till 2025,” while Uzbekistan has developed and submitted for approval a “Strategy for the Development of the Transport System until 2035.” 

In 2018, Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev made his  first state visit to Tajikistan. Following the results of bilateral negotiations, an agreement on the transit of goods through the territory of Uzbekistan was signed. The document was initiated by the Tajik side, which sought more favorable conditions for using Uzbek transit when servicing international cargo transportation. An important milestone in achieving this goal was the agreement between the authorities of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan on the mutual abolition of permits for vehicles transiting through their territories. Every year, Uzbekistan allows more than 36,000 Tajik trucks involved in transit deliveries to pass through its borders. It is expected that the abolition of permits will intensify this process, and along with it, expand transit capabilities of the two states with all the ensuing benefits.

Prior to solving these practical problems, several significant events occurred, notably the restoration of the activities of eight automobile checkpoints on the common border, as well as the resumption of freight and passenger traffic along key transport routes. For example, in 2018, the Galaba-Amuzang-Khoshadi railway was restored, connecting the southern regions of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. The Dushanbe-Khujand-Chanak road, serving Eurasian transit traffic, was rehabilitated.

It is noteworthy that in the first year after the reactivation of transport communication, the trade turnover between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan increased by more than 50 percent and has continued to grow steadily since then. The past seven years has seen an almost fourfold increase in mutual trade, from $197 million to $757 million. As of 2023, Tajikistan ranked 11th among Uzbekistan’s partners in terms of foreign trade turnover.

The volumes of bilateral cargo transportation are even more impressive. From 2016 to 2023, this figure increased 25 times on rail and two times on road transport, which in total exceeded 9 million tons. However, this figure does not reflect the true potential of the two countries, given their high rates of demographic and economic growth.

According to World Bank forecasts, in 2024, the GDPs of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan will increase by 6.5 percent and 5.3 percent, respectively. In the medium term, economic growth is expected to be at the level of 4.5-5.5 percent. Given this trend, the goal has been set to bring trade turnover to $2 billion, which will entail a significant increase in cargo traffic in both directions. To ensure its timely and high-quality service, it is necessary to modernize the transport infrastructure, create a modern transport management system, and establish fast and uninterrupted communication routes. Fulfilling these tasks is not cheap, and here the capabilities of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are limited.

One effective solution to the problem of investment deficits in the transport sectors of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan could be their joint integration into international transport corridors. This will contribute to increasing their transit potential and bring in solid income.

Due to their location, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan act as a nodal link in the supply chain between the largest economic centers of Eurasia. Participation in global transport projects allows Dushanbe and Tashkent to strengthen their connection with world markets and expand the geography of exports, while also earning revenue from the transit of international cargo. Understanding this, both countries have prioritized the creation of mutually beneficial trade routes of interregional importance in their transport strategies.

The China-Tajikistan-Uzbekistan-Turkmenistan-Iran-Turkey-Europe multimodal corridor project holds great promise. It was created by merging two transport arteries that were put into operation in 2022: the China-Tajikistan-Uzbekistan highway and the Uzbekistan-Turkmenistan-Iran-Turkey railway route. For Uzbekistan, the new automobile corridor is notable because it will relieve the Kamchik Pass, which connects the Tashkent region with the Fergana Valley, by redirecting the flow of heavy-duty vehicles to Tajikistan. And Tajikistan, in turn, thanks to Uzbek transit, gains relatively quick access to the markets of Turkey and the European Union. 

At the same time, Dushanbe is also developing other routes with access to similar markets that bypass Uzbekistan. In particular, work has resumed on the construction of the Tajikistan-Afghanistan-Turkmenistan railway (the TAT project). In July 2024 the Ministry of Transport of Tajikistan and the Korea International Cooperation Agency (KOICA) agreed to develop a feasibility study for the Jaloliddini Balkhi-Panji Poyon railway project, which will be connected to the borders of Afghanistan. This highway will become part of the TAT project, which, in turn, will compete with the Uzbekistan-Turkmenistan-Iran-Oman multimodal trade route, launched in 2016 based on the Ashgabat agreement.

Tajikistan is seeking to implement another equally important railway route, the China-Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan-Afghanistan-Iran link or the Five Nations Railway Corridor. Full implementation of the project, with its expansion to the West (as an alternative outlet for East and Central Asian countries to the markets of the European Union), and the Middle East (to connect with the Arab monarchies of the Persian Gulf) will not only facilitate the effective integration of Tajikistan into the global supply chain, but will also strengthen the country’s position in the Afghan direction. 

The importance of Tajikistan in the development of trans-Afghan communications is still underestimated. This is due to both the hostility of Dushanbe to the new government of Afghanistan and the stagnation of some strategic initiatives in which Tajikistan could play a decisive role. The most promising of these is the project to restore the ancient trade route from China to Afghanistan, called the Wakhan Corridor.

The route runs through the high-mountain Wakhan Valley (the territory of the Lesser Pamirs in the Afghan province of Badakhshan), where the borders of Afghanistan, China, Tajikistan, and Pakistan meet.

With the opening of the Wakhan Corridor, Tajikistan would have the shortest access to the markets of China and Pakistan, as well as more distant countries and continents through Pakistani ports on the Indian Ocean. In this scenario, the country has a great chance of becoming a hub in the Central Asia-South Asia supply chain and competing with Uzbek transit, the importance of which is expected to increase even more after the launch of the Termez-Mazar-i-Sharif-Kabul-Peshawar railway, scheduled for 2030.

Currently the implementation of the Wakhan Corridor is limited by the security factor in Afghanistan, the complexity of the local terrain, and the high cost of the project. However, in August 2024, the Taliban announced the completion of a 50-kilometer gravel road connecting Badakhshan with the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region of China. The work was carried out at the expense of budget funds. In order to turn the road into a full-fledged transit and trade route, large investments are needed. Afghan authorities are counting on assistance from Beijing, which is taking a wait-and-see approach to the Wakhan Corridor.

Despite the potential for a conflict of interests on the transport and transit track, it is still beneficial for Tajikistan and Uzbekistan to cooperate rather than compete with each other. In the current situation, the countries should focus on eliminating bottlenecks in the issue of transport convergence. It is necessary to ensure the coherence of transport strategies and tariff and price policies, work to improve positions in all indicators of the Logistics Performance Index (LPI), including the efficiency of customs clearance, the timeliness of cargo deliveries, the quality of infrastructure and transport services.