Via Stratfor (subscription required), an interesting analysis of the second India-Brazil-South Africa (IBSA) summit held on Oct. 15-17, most notably IBSA’s influence in Africa and its potential role in the growing competition between India and China for Africa’s oil:

“…India, Brazil and South Africa lack Western countries’ and China’s capital and investment capabilities and will try to gain leverage in Africa by claiming that, as self-proclaimed leaders of the global south, they are looking out for Africa’s interests and deserve inclusion in discussions on divvying up Africa’s resources. …Competition will likely arise between India and China over African oil. African countries combined hold approximately 114 billion barrels of oil, according to 2007 figures from Oil and Gas Journal. (In comparison, the Middle East has approximately 739 billion barrels.) While China and India will not come to diplomatic blows soon, there could be an increasing “race for resources” over the next 10 years as Indian and Chinese demands for energy resources continue to grow exponentially.

China imports about 25 percent of its oil from Africa, and that amount is growing. China’s investments in Africa — especially Sudan, which ships approximately 64 percent of its oil exports to China — have been under increasing scrutiny from Western human rights activists who argue that China is facilitating genocide in Sudan by pumping funds into the Sudanese government. Furthermore, Africa as a whole is increasingly wary of China’s influence on the continent.

India, which imports approximately 70 percent of the crude oil it consumes, struck a strategic partnership deal with Nigeria during the recent IBSA summit and is organizing a hydrocarbon conference in Africa in early November to hammer out agreements for more Indian investment opportunities. Throughout such negotiations, India will seek to differentiate itself from China as a non-threatening power. However, this is all India has going for it, as it sorely lacks the cash and technology to seriously compete with China in this arena. Furthermore, India’s state-owned Oil and Natural Gas Co. regularly gets hung up in red tape and bureaucratic excess, falling far behind in any bidding wars for overseas energy assets.”