As recently presented by the Foreign Policy Association, India has recently increased its diplomatic and strategic movements in Central Asia. Given that we examined China’s interest in Central Asia in a previous post, we wanted to offer this analysis of India’s growing interests as well:

…India has many reasons to desire greater influence in Central Asia as it holds strategic, military, and economic interests for the nation. The Central Asian states of Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan are energy-rich and India is energy-poor. India’s thriving economy, averaging about 8-9 percent GDP growth a year, doubled its oil consumption between 1992-2005 and it predicts to double this again by 2030. The state currently imports 70 percent of its oil and 50 percent of its gas and if this demand cannot be met its economy faces collapse. Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan can provide gas and oil and Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan hold great hydroelectric potential for New Delhi.

The Central Asian states strategic location also makes it vital for India to have at least a solid presence in the region, as they are sandwiched by Russia, China, Iran, Pakistan, and the increasingly unstable Afghanistan. India cannot afford to be left out in the cold while China, Russia, Pakistan, and even the EU devour Central Asia’s resources and cement strategic bases. India knows that they are both too late and too weak to dominate the region, but they must do whatever they can to make sure that no other state or grouping accomplishes this as well. The region is vital in India’s own fight against terrorism, as it holds several Islamic terrorist groups that may find their way to India’s homeland or local interest holdings, such as future pipelines or bases.

…Last April, India’s Vice President Hamid Ansari visited both Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan to discuss energy cooperation with much success. Turkmenistan and India signed a framework MoU for cooperation in the oil and gas sectors, creating an opening for Indian companies to enter the nation’s hydrocarbon market. Also during these talks, the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline was discussed and it appears that this long sought after project may finally be coming to fruition. The project would cost around $7.6 billion dollars and run for 1,680 kilometers from the Turkmen city of Dauletabad through Afghanistan’s Herat and Kandahar provinces, into Quetta, Pakistan, and proceed to its final destination at the Indian border town of Fazilka. The project would provide Afghanistan’s government much needed revenue from transit fees, Turkmenistan another way to diversify its gas market, and Pakistan and India valuable energy to fuel their economies. However, this project and many others of the same ilk in Central Asia face considerable challenges. The costs, for one, are enormous and there are still logistical difficulties to be worked out. The region is full of difficult terrain to traverse and a scarcity of ready transport slows down many such projects. Most pipelines that do not go directly towards Russia face instability in many of the states they pass through, and TAPI is no exception with security being weak in both Afghanistan and Pakistan. These pipelines would be major targets for the Taliban and other insurgents.

Another difficulty New Delhi encounters in trying to acquire or position CA natural resources towards its borders is the fact that they are rather late in the ‘game’ and must compete with several other significant buyers. Russia has for years held a monopoly on Central Asian gas and oil and almost all pipelines from the region flow to the north. China and the EU are also aggressively courting Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan’s energy supplies and they have the money to persuade a deal in their favor. However, Ansari-Berdymuhamedov’s MoU, and the less successful but still substantial meeting with Kazakhstan’s government, is a major step for India’s influence and interests in the region. Vice President Ansari concurs, stating that, “India considers Turkmenistan an extended neighbor, a natural ally and a key partner in Central Asia…”