Abstract: This article examines the growing influence of Russia in Africa and its implications for global security and stability. It traces the historical roots of Russia’s engagement with African countries, from the Cold War era to the present day, and analyzes the motivations and methods of Russia’s involvement. It argues that Russia’s strategic alliances and opaque activities in Africa challenge the interests and values of Western nations, especially the United States, and threaten to undermine the prospects of a free, open, and prosperous Africa. It concludes by offering some recommendations for Western policymakers to counter Russia’s challenge and to cooperate with African countries on common issues.

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The growing influence of Russia in Africa is a matter of global significance and concern, given Africa’s potential to shape this century. Russia’s true growing influence in Africa, which is often overshadowed by China’s growing African influence, is a matter of global significance and concern, given Africa’s potential to shape this century.[i] Russia’s strategic alliances and opaque African engagements threaten global security and stability. Russia cultivates ties with vulnerable African nations and uses disinformation and proxies, such as Wagner Group mercenaries, to gain influence and legitimacy on the continent, which can lead to instability, economic stagnation, human rights abuses, and social polarization in the targeted countries on the continent.[ii] Western nations with interest in Africa must reassesstheir African strategies and strengthen their diplomatic ties, investment, and support for democracy and human rights to counter Russia’s challenge to their interests and values while continuing to promote a free, open, and prosperous Africa and cooperate with African countries on global issues, such as health, climate, and peace.[iii]

The world is likely witnessing a renewed surge of Russian actors’ influence in Africa. Nations such as China, Russia, some Gulf States (e.g., Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar), and Turkey have employed private entities, state-run companies, predatory lending practices, and diplomacy to secure economic and political power across the continent.[iv] [v] The United States remains a dominant aid/donor and military actor in Africa, but China’s and Russia’s influence-seeking is still rising.[vi] This great power competition in Africa is not a zero-sum game.

Background: Russia in Africa from the Cold War to the Present

During the Cold War, the Soviet Union aimed to forge ties with African countries based on shared economic ambitions and mutual distrust of the West.[vii] The Soviet-era KGB was likely used to destabilize governments and spread disinformation in its bid for influence on the continent.[viii] The Soviet Union seemed to have taken little interest in the continent until the decolonization of Africa in the 1950s and early 1960s, which created opportunities to expand its influence. The Soviet Union-backed liberation movements in countries such as Angola, Mozambique, and Guinea-Bissau were often part of proxy wars with the West.[ix]

Russian President Vladimir Putin is not randomly developing his network of influence on the African continent. Moscow is likely drawing on this rich history of Soviet relations with most African countries it has had since the 1950s. The Kremlin’s foreign policy took a new turn amid the crisis that gripped the Belgian Congo in the 1960s.[x] These events likely began a race for Russian influence south of the Sahara.[xi]

During the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Kremlin’s interest in the continent began to decline. Despite that lack of interest in the region from the early 1990s to the end of the 2000s, Moscow left its mark on the continent. To restore Russia’s past prominence in Africa, Vladimir Putin likely took advantage of the relatively good reputation the Soviet Union had on the continent and called upon networks of old contacts to reestablish relations on the continent. This history and continued influence of Russia will have great significance and implications for the geopolitical landscape within Africa today.

Potential Impact on Western Powers

Russia’s influence in Africa has significant impacts and challenges for the continent, as well as for the United States and other Western partners.[xii] Russia’s technological standing in the world and Africa could offer benefits and opportunities for each other, such as diversifying Africa’s external relations, increasing its access to resources and technology, and enhancing its security and stability.[xiii] On the other hand, Russia’s engagement with Africa would also likely pose some risks and threats, such as undermining Africa’s democratic governance and human rights, exacerbating its conflicts and violence, and exploiting its natural resources and environment.[xiv]

Russia’s engagement in Africa has often been and likely will continue to be characterized by opportunistic actions and collusion between the Russian state and private entities with these likely goals:

• Maximize profits through proxies.
• Disrupt Western influence.
• Strengthen Russia’s geopolitical standing.

Russia pursues these objectives mentioned above through misinformation campaigns, alliances with corrupt elites, and predatory profit-seeking, including the extraction of natural resources.[xv] If Russian influence were to become even more significant than that of its Western adversaries in specific regions or on the global stage, Moscow would likely have a few implications and consequences, mentioned below:

1. Predictable Pattern of Engagement
2. Russia’s engagement in Africa follows a predictable pattern, targeting countries with preexisting relationships, political instability, and profit opportunities.[xvi] Potential future targets include Cameroon, the Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, and Uganda.

• Russia’s influence in Africa manifests in various domains: diplomacy, economy, security, and culture. Russia has increased its diplomatic presence and outreach in Africa by hosting events such as the first-ever Russia-Africa summit in 2019 and establishing strategic partnerships and cooperation agreements with several African countries and regional organizations.[xvii] Moscow likely wants to demonstrate to its African partners that Moscow is willing and a reliable partner for the long run—a better partner than any Western or NATO country could ever be.  

• Russia has also increased its economic ties with Africa by expanding its trade, investment, and development assistance, especially in the energy, mining, and infrastructure sectors.

Russia has also enhanced its security cooperation with Africa, providing military training, equipment, and advisors and engaging in peacekeeping, counterterrorism, and mediation efforts and support (e.g., Central African Republic (CAR), Mali, Sudan, and Zimbabwe.).[xviii]

• Challenges to Russian Expansion in Africa
• Russia’s behavior in Africa generates resentment and opposition within African countries and internationally.[xix] The recent Wagner Group mutiny has exposed the weaknesses and challenges in the Russian Federation’s approach, diminishing its reputation as a dependable security partner. The Wagner uprising has likely caused uncertainty and concern in countries that relied on Wagner forces to maintain power within certain nations’ borders.[xx] The mutiny highlights the potential consequences for Russian officials involved in human rights abuses and crimes committed by Wagner mercenaries.[xxi]

• Russia’s breakthroughs in Africa are partly owed to rekindling of Soviet-era relations. Nevertheless, the Kremlin’s remarkable advances on the continent throughout the last decade also result from twin contemporary efforts, adept diplomatic re-engagement with key regional players, and opportunistic predation in areas where Western powers are either absent or in trouble.[xxii]

• While the U.S.-led effort to form a global coalition aimed at isolating Russia internationally has likely strengthened the transatlantic alliance, it has yet to fully convince the rest of the world, including countries on the African continent, to break ties with Moscow.[xxiii] Many across Africa regard the war in Ukraine as primarily a Western problem and are preoccupied with protecting their national interests. Even with the war and sanctions straining Russia’s economy and defense sector, the Kremlin retains sufficient ties with the continent to challenge Western narratives.

• Responding to Russian efforts on the continent
• To counter Russia’s influence in Africa, the Western powers, especially the United States and its allies, must expose Russia’s destructive activities by working with African partners and supporting investigative journalism to bring to light possible activities Moscow may be conducting on the continent.[1] The Journalists practice not necessarily creating a “caught-you” moment but keeping the nation honest and a breast of activities. It would also address the root causes of vulnerability to Russia by improving governance and economies—harnessing Africa’s economic opportunities through strategic partnerships and investments. Enable regional security cooperation led by African nations with Western support. All these activities would quell efforts by Moscow on the continent.[2]

Additional Thoughts

Increased Russian influence will shift global power dynamics, leading to changes in international organizations and diplomatic initiatives.[xxiv] This influence may likely cause countries to reevaluate their alliances, potentially aligning more closely with Russia for economic and/or security benefits.

More significant Russian influence will impact global economic and trade dynamics, leading to more economic cooperation with Russia. Increased Russian influence intensifies global competition, potentially impacting international issues like climate change agreements and efforts to address other global challenges.[xxv]

Conclusion

The growing influence of Russia in Africa is a matter of global significance, given Africa’s potential to shape the 21st century. Addressing the challenges posed by Russia’s engagement in Africa is essential for promoting stability, good governance, and economic development. Africa’s trajectory will significantly impact the world’s future, making it a critical area of focus for U.S. and Western engagement. Russia’s increasing influence in Africa must be a global concern, as Africa’s future can shape the 21st century globally. Meeting the challenges of Russia’s involvement is vital for African stability, governance, and economic growth. Given its potential global impact, Africa warrants increased attention and reassessment from the U.S. and its allies.

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[1] https://www.asianews.it/news-en/For-Vicar-of-Aleppo,-Idlib-is-a-pretext-to-hit-Syria.-Christian-families-live-in-the-area-44901.html

[2] https://www.asianews.it/news-en/For-Vicar-of-Aleppo,-Idlib-is-a-pretext-to-hit-Syria.-Christian-families-live-in-the-area-44901.html)

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[i] https://thediplomat.com/2023/04/china-russia-cooperation-in-africa-and-the-middle-east/

[ii] https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/31/world/africa/wagner-group-africa.html

[iii] https://ecfr.eu/article/middle-powers-big-impact-africas-coup-belt-russia-and-the-waning-global-order/

[iv] https://thediplomat.com/2023/04/china-russia-cooperation-in-africa-and-the-middle-east/

[v] https://africacenter.org/spotlight/mapping-disinformation-in-africa/

[vi] https://news.usni.org/2022/03/15/africom-china-russia-expanding-influence-in-africa

[vii] Philip E. Muehlenbeck, “Kennedy and Toure: A success in personal diplomacy.” Diplomacy and Statecraft 19.1 (2008): 69-9

[viii] https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20230720-soviet-spies-in-africa-how-the-kgb-expanded-russian-influence-during-the-cold-war

[ix] Arthur J. Klinghoffer, “The Soviet Union and Angola,” (Army War College, 1980) online Archived 2020-02-01 at the Wayback Machine

[x] Omajuwa Igho Natufe, “The Cold War and the Congo crisis, 1960-1961.” Africa (1984): 353-374.

[xi] https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/while-the-worlds-eyes-are-elsewhere-russia-makes-gains-in-africa-opinion/ar-AA1j9Ewc

[xii] https://www.dw.com/en/fact-check-russias-influence-on-africa/a-66310017

[xiii] https://www.dw.com/en/fact-check-russias-influence-on-africa/a-66310017

[xiv] https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-future-of-russia-africa-relations/

[xv] https://www.csis.org/blogs/post-soviet-post/countering-russian-disinformation

[xvi] https://africacenter.org/spotlight/decoding-russia-economic-engagements-africa/

[xvii] https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep19355

[xviii] https://africacenter.org/spotlight/decoding-russia-economic-engagements-africa/