However, analysts warn the additions may exacerbate existing rifts between members and introduce new ideological fault lines that could hinder cooperation.

Earlier this year, Saudi Arabia, Iran, the UAE, Ethiopia, and Egypt joined the bloc, which already comprised of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. The expansion represented a geopolitical shift, seemingly cementing the bloc’s rise as a potential counterweight to Western-led groups like the G7. The newly expanded BRICS holds a total combined wealth of around $45 trillion, a recent report by Henley & Partners suggests.

The 10-member group now represents more than 45 percent of the global population and 36 percent of global GDP — significantly higher than the G7 which holds around 30 percent.

“There is likely to be more phases of BRICS expansion,” Abishur Prakash, founder of Toronoto-based geopolitical advisory firm The Geopolitical Business, Inc, told Arabian Business. “However, while a lot of focus is on who will join BRICS, a bigger question is whether BRICS itself will continue to have the magnetism it currently has.”

That magnetism hinges on what tangible achievements the bloc can deliver, Prakash said, warning “the timeline is short: just a few years.”

While the new members boost BRICS’ economic clout and imbue it with energy superpowers like Saudi Arabia, the additions also risk making the group increasingly unwieldy and divided over key issues, stymieing its ability to act cohesively on the world stage.

Internal rifts

“The lack of political and economic homogeneity is one of the major challenges for the BRICS that could impede the bloc from acting effectively as a collective in the short term,” said Omar Khadr, a Middle East, North Africa, and Turkey intelligence analyst at Sibylline Ltd.

He cited existing tensions between BRICS’ core members as one obstacle, like the border conflicts and rivaling trade corridors between India and China. The rift between Egypt and Ethiopia over water security is another “intra-dispute” that could intensify without resolution, he said.

Ideological divides

Beyond bilateral spats, BRICS faces broader ideological hurdles now that it represents a wider array of political, economic, and social systems.

“One of the reasons [a BRICS currency] is largely a pipe dream is that BRICS nations are not going to peg themselves to a currency that their competitor controls,” said Prakash, noting how India would be loath to cede monetary policy to China, for instance.

He argued the bloc must identify areas where genuine cooperation is viable without “letting paranoia and old suspicions come in the way,” like food security, demographics, and climate initiatives.

Turkey, Argentina potential BRICS membership in question

Looking ahead, there is much speculation over whether other major economies could join a future expansion round. But the experts had mixed views on two oft-mentioned candidates: Turkey and Argentina.

Khadr assessed that Turkey will likely keep pursuing closer BRICS ties but may not be fully keen on membership soon due to factors like its current administration’s policies.

As for Argentina, “I think [it] is unlikely to join the bloc as long as [President] Javier Milei is in power or any other far-right president,” Khadr said.

Potential new members

So which nations could be the next to join BRICS?

Prakash believes Indonesia, poised to become a major world economy, stands a high chance, as does Morocco due to its position linking Africa with Europe and China’s Belt and Road infrastructure initiative.

But he questioned whether the existing BRICS members could even overcome their own differences to align on admitting nations like Turkey, Argentina, or France – which has previously expressed interest – given the complex web of opposing stances on issues like the Israel-Palestinian conflict.

“How does this clear contrast and opposing positions work in geopolitics? In any other setting, it could lead to paralysis and inertia,” said Prakash.

Nicolas Michelon, geopolitical risk expert and Partner at Confluence Consultants, believes that Turkey and Morocco could be invited to join the bloc, he said in a recent interview on the AB Majlis podcast.

“I think there is a realistic possibility that there will be another expansion coming in the next two years, focusing on the inclusion of other major economies in the global south, such as Nigeria and Algeria. Several countries will likely become members of the BRICS New Development Bank (NDB) before becoming full members of the bloc,” Khadr suggested.

However, he believes that as long as Morocco’s ties with South Africa remain significantly strained, the North African country is unlikely to join the group.

Beyond Economics

The expansion has inevitably fuelled talk of whether BRICS is evolving into a counterweight body to the West and forums like the G7, EU, and NATO on political and security matters.

But the experts suggested that is highly unlikely, at least when it comes to any sort of military alliance, due to the sheer ideological gaps between members on crucial security issues.

Michelon said that the bloc has a “brighter future” than the EU as it is “less ambitious in the way it operates politically.”

“I don’t think that a major security alliance such as NATO will emerge from the BRICS due to conflicting security agendas among members,” Khadr said.

Prakash went even further. “BRICS can never become a NATO-like organisation, where the group handles defenses and security matters, due to the sheer differences and divergences within the group.”

He cited how Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons, for example, could ignite new tensions with Saudi Arabia. Additionally, Russia and even BRICS heavyweight China have their own hangups about ceding military might to the broader collective.

“These capitals will never give up their military power to the broader bloc – and rightly so,” Prakash said.

Beyond security cooperation appearing highly elusive, Prakash argued the inherent cohesion on shared history, culture, and values that has enabled Western blocs like NATO to truly unify and implement policies has long eluded BRICS.

“This same unity does not exist in BRICS, nor do the same conditions of history and ideology,” he said. “It is in this area, standing together, that the West continues to lead the world in, and it will be this area that tests the resilience and resolution of the BRICS group.”

The group is yet to move beyond ideas, and start working on projects. “It will be the implementation that defines what BRICS becomes”

In the coming years, according to Khadr, the group will focus on economic cooperation, primarily developing its own effective and operational cross-border payment system and wean itself off its dependence on the US Dollar in its intra-trade to counter the G7.