Cyril Matemola Ramaphosa, the president of the Republic of South Africa and host of the 2023 BRICS summit, announced on Thursday the names of countries admitted to membership of the exclusive BRICS Club.

The admitted countries, six in all, are Saudi Arabia, Iran, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Argentina and Ethiopia. Nigeria, one of the more than 20 countries that had applied for membership, was not on the list.

This must be humiliating for the current Nigerian government and for a country that fancies itself as the ‘Giant of Africa’. Loads of Nigerians, too, expected that their country would be admitted into membership.

Not giant enough

Confident that it would be, the government dispatched the vice president, Kashim Shettima, to South Africa to attend the summit and bring back the good news. Given the sycophancy and ‘eye service’ that characterise Nigeria’s media and politics, praise singers must have lined up to laud Nigeria’s admission into the BRICS Club as global recognition for a man who – with a lot of alleged uncomplimentary baggage – is the country’s current helmsman.

It was not to be. Mr Ramaphosa and his BRICS colleagues told the ‘Giant of Africa’ that it did not qualify for membership. It was not ‘giant’ enough – like Brazil in Latin America, India and China in Asia, and Russia in Eurasia. Instead, three countries, South Africa, Egypt and Ethiopia together constitute the true giants of Africa, according to the BRICS deciders.

Shettima and his boss, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, must be disappointed. Many people across Nigeria and the continent must be surprised by the outcome. Fortunately, I do not count among them. In actuality, I would have been surprised and disappointed if Nigeria had been admitted into the Club.

New drivers

The global interest in the just concluded BRICS Summit in South Africa underscores the reality that the geopolitical map of the world is changing at a very rapid pace. And it is changing a way that many in Nigeria in particular, and in Africa in general, are not seriously thinking about.

Covid-19, US president Joseph Biden’s Cold War mentality, the European Union’s bellicosity and belligerence, the West’s fear of a China in full bloom, and the War in Ukraine (itself a consequence of the second, but important enough to be listed separately) are the main drivers.

This rapid change is messing up the well-laid-out plans of a number of countries. Germany’s hope that it would continue to be Europe’s industrial behemoth on the basis of cheap Russian energy has been shattered. Turkey, for example, does not seem quite sure where it should anchor its future.

It probably explains Turkey’s endless and now almost laughable Janus-faced foreign policy: today it is with the East and Russia, tomorrow, it is with the US and the West, and the next it is just with itself. Confused country.

No foreign policy

Nigeria, meanwhile, is in a free fall, and has been since 2015. Nigeria’s former president, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, alerted Nigerians and their government to the fact that the country was  in danger of losing influence across the world, and in Africa.

The intriguing but unsurprising thing is that Nigeria’s leaders are not taking any reasonable measures to stem their country’s rapid descent. They assert the influence and importance of their country. Listen to them ask: ‘How dare Niger’s coupists disrespect President Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu of Nigeria?’

The truth is that Nigeria has no foreign policy and has not had any foreign policy since 2015. It is impossible to identify what the country’s interests are. And the country has no spine, no courage in international affairs. The economy is in a shambles. Impunity, criminality, banditry and terrorism characterise our country’s social and political life.

So Obasanjo’s prophecy has come to pass. Nigeria has lost a lot of influence and clout. No serious country is wooing it (except those that want it to go and restore ‘democracy’ in Niger, the euphemism for ‘go and fight Russia and her Wagner group of mercenaries for us in the Sahel’). Western concern about Nigeria stems from regional stability worries, not because Nigeria commands the type of influence it once commanded.

Nigeria’s situation is made worse because it currently has a government headed by a man who many consider across the country and the world, whether rightly or wrongly, to be illegitimate and of very questionable character. Without taking sides in the debate, I will be stunned to see any self-respecting world leaders who will want to have Tinubu and his Nigeria in their company.

Let’s admit this truth – most non-African leaders don’t appear to want to be associated with Nigeria’s president. Admitting Nigeria to BRICS membership at this time, under these circumstances, will be extremely damaging to the BRICS brand. You don’t reward the person who currently serves as Nigeria’s No. 1 in the Villa with membership of a prestigious club. Nigeria may be a beautiful bride, but it is not an attractive one.

Balancing act

Some Nigerians say: ‘Separate the president from the country and her peoples. Presidents come and go but our country and people will always remain.’ Perhaps. But in global affairs, the consideration is not always about a country and her peoples; it is very often about the people leading the country, about the faces a country presents to the rest of the world as its own.

A closer look at the list of the countries invited to join the BRICS Club in 2024 reveals a well-thought-through decision.

It was a very careful political balancing act: the group could not admit Saudi Arabia without admitting Iran (the opposite is true: it could not admit Iran without admitting Saudi Arabia). Similarly, it could not admit Egypt without admitting Ethiopia and it could not admit Ethiopia without admitting Egypt. UAE goes wherever Saudi Arabia goes. Together, the BRICS Club will have at least four of the world’s largest oil producers, making it a mini-OPEC. And lithium too.

Alliances will continue to evolve at a fast pace in the coming decade. Nigeria will be best served to recognise the changes in strategic international relations and define her interests accordingly.

The BRICS club may yet open its doors and admit new members within a decade. If Nigeria does not want to be humiliated again, it should begin now to prepare for it.

This means that it must get its house in order, have a clearly defined foreign policy with mettle and courage, grow its economy, and tame its insecurity problems.

Critical instrument lacking

New applications to BRICS membership will depend in large measure on the extent to which this expanded club is able to expand the frontiers of development of its members, contain the West in general, and confront the conspiratorial impunity and high-handedness of the G7.

I am reluctant to believe that, under the current circumstances, the BRICS club can be a very effective economic counterweight to the G7 and the US.

The reason is simple. The BRICS club does not have the one critical instrument in international relations and influence that the G7 has: scientific and technological independence.

Until the BRICS Club has it, or is sufficiently able to close the wide scientific, technological and innovation gap between it and the West, the G7, led by the US and Europe, will continue to play an outsized role in global affairs, albeit on a much smaller scale and with some humility.

That probably will be enough for countries tired of the current international posture of the US, the European Union, and their allies to apply for BRICS membership during the next round of expansion. If there is another. Who knows, Nigeria’s application could be successful then.