Already Chinese state media are decrying America’s expansionism and, having made similar noises on Greenland and Gaza, have restated China’s credentials as a supporter of smaller states in the face of big, bad America. “No more pretending! Trump claims he will expand American territory”, read a China Youth Daily headline after the inauguration. “The world is not blind to the truth of who is keeping the canal neutral and thriving and who keeps threatening to ‘take back’ the canal,” said a foreign-ministry spokesperson. Panama is in danger of becoming a case study of how an American hard-power win could become a soft-power loss.

America did not need to resort to threats to combat Chinese influence in Panama, says Nehemías Jaén, a former Panamanian diplomat. The peak of China hype was in 2017-19, he says. Then-president Juan Carlos Varela switched recognition from Taiwan to China in 2017, as a result of China’s aggressive diplomacy. He signed a flurry of bilateral agreements that included joining the bri. But very little of the promised prosperity materialised.

China has committed only $386m in loans and grants to Panama since it joined the bri, according to AidData, a research lab at William and Mary University. Most of it was before 2020. Since then many of the Chinese infrastructure projects have been quietly cancelled or reassigned, partly because of American pressure. A free-trade agreement was put on ice. In 2021 Panama revoked a concession for a Chinese consortium of firms to build a port on the Caribbean coast. In January the first contract for a railway line from Panama City to the border with Costa Rica (originally a Chinese proposal) was awarded to an American firm. China has not made significant inroads in Panamanian public opinion either. A survey in 2023 by the Centre for Insights in Survey Research found that 62% of Panamanians were not aware of any major Chinese investment in their country.

But Mr Trump’s belligerence has re-awakened some anti-American ghosts. With the country using the dollar as one of its official currencies, Panama’s government has little choice but to appease America and distance itself from China. But some citizens are angry. Protesters burned effigies of Mr Trump and Marco Rubio, the new secretary of state, during Mr Rubio’s recent visit. Panama’s president reiterated that ownership of the canal is not negotiable. Rubén Blades, a famous musician and former presidential candidate, wrote that “Panama has to prepare for the eventuality of another invasion.” Labour unions have organised protests.

Such sentiments may not change Panama’s political stance. But anti-Americanism in the region is tilting some others towards China. Neighbouring Colombia, with whom Mr Trump locked horns early in his presidency, is joining the bri and launching a new shipping route to Shanghai including a stop at a Chinese-built megaport in Peru that opened last year.

For years Chinese leaders have accused America of hegemonic behaviour. They now claim to be the upholders of the rules-based order, and point with some justification to America’s disregard for international norms when it suits its interests. But if they fail to cut through with those arguments, the Panama affair has another implication. With Mr Trump apparently signalling a return to spheres of influence in international affairs, China will not hesitate to push harder for its own in Asia.