“We will use the strong foundation [Jokowi] has built, especially in the economic sector, to work faster, harder, to bring results as quickly as possible to the Indonesian people,” Prabowo said Wednesday after the General Election Commision certified his victory.

Indonesia, the world’s fourth-most populous country with 270 million people, has leveraged its abundant natural resources to expand its economy around 5% a year. Prabowo aims to accelerate this growth to turn Indonesia into one of the five largest economies by 2045.

The president-elect has asserted that he will remain diplomatically neutral, balancing between the U.S. and China in a bid to attract investment from both.

On the economic front, Prabowo plans to maintain the industrial development policies of Jokowi’s administration. His government looks to restrict exports of resources such as nickel to draw processing and manufacturing to the country.

The new administration will seek to address regional economic inequality with rail and highway projects, and move forward with Jokowi’s plan to relocate Indonesia’s capital from Jakarta to Nusantara.

One of Prabowo’s own signature initiatives is a plan to offer free school lunches from kindergarten through high school, covering an estimated 80 million students.

“My own estimate is that within the next four to five years, we can see 8% growth,” Prabowo said at an event in Jakarta this month.

These growth-focused policies carry risks, among them concerns about how to fund Prabowo’s heavy fiscal spending plans. The free lunch program, slated to roll out nationwide in 2029, would cost roughly 450 trillion rupiah ($29 billion) a year — more than 10% of the national budget. Indonesia already spends around 20% of its budget on education.

The program is expected to be partly incorporated into the 2025 budget. Finance Minister Sri Mulyani has projected a budget deficit of 2.45% to 2.8% of GDP next year, up from 1.7% in 2023 and close to the legal limit of 3%.

With infrastructure spending this year set to swell to 420 trillion rupiah amid the capital relocation, the fiscal gap could widen further.

Market watchers are voicing concern about fiscal discipline. “We believe medium-term fiscal risks have risen,” Fitch Ratings wrote recently, citing uncertainty over the next administration’s fiscal plans and costly campaign pledges.

Dealing with the legislature could prove difficult as well.

Prabowo’s Gerindra, or Great Indonesia Movement, party won only 13% of the vote in legislative elections held alongside the presidential vote, coming in third. Its alliance with three other parties backing Prabowo — Golkar, the Democratic Party and the National Mandate Party — brings the total to just over 40%. If the new government starts off with the president’s coalition in the minority, it could struggle to implement its policies.

Prabowo’s relationship with Jokowi, whose perceived tacit support in the run-up to the election helped to fuel Prabowo’s landslide victory, is another wild card. 

Jokowi is expected to try to maintain influence in the next administration, and is reportedly set to be involved in nominating cabinet members and policymaking. The dynamic between Jokowi and Prabowo — who, while on good terms now, were fierce rivals in previous presidential elections — will be a key factor in the new administration’s stability.