Via Foreign Policy, a look at how a recent oil shipment from Russia to Pakistan shows how the global south is balancing relations with Moscow and the West:

A Russian cargo ship delivered barrels of crude oil to Karachi, Pakistan, last Sunday. It was the first shipment in a deal struck in April to send 100,000 metric tons of Russian crude to the country, more than a year into cash-strapped Russia’s war in Ukraine.

The agreement highlights a surge in cooperation between Russia and Pakistan as the special relationship between Russia and India experiences some challenges. It is also indicative of how countries in the global south are seeking to balance relations with Moscow and the West in the wake of the war in Ukraine.

Russia-Pakistan ties frayed during the Cold War as Islamabad aligned with Washington. The relationship picked up during the later years of the U.S.-led war in Afghanistan as their interests converged around counterterrorism and reconciliation with the Taliban. When former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan visited Moscow at the moment Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, energy was already on the agenda.

Pakistan’s current government has also seemed open to energy deals with Russia. It initially described the April deal as a trial run, but this week Pakistan’s petroleum minister said that it aims to fill one-third of its oil import needs with Russian crude. (Historically, Pakistan has imported much of its oil from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.)

And Moscow has laid on the charm: On Monday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov marked 75 years of bilateral relations with an effusive speech, concluding in Urdu: “Long live Pakistan-Russia ties.”

Russia is also deepening ties with China, resulting in scaled-up Russian arms shipments to Beijing—and raising concerns in New Delhi that Moscow could scale back military cooperation under Chinese pressure.

However, it’s premature to speak of a reconfiguration in Russia’s relations with Pakistan—or India. The energy cooperation between Moscow and Islamabad is significant, but it may not be sustainable. Pakistan is in the middle of an economic crisis, which calls into question its ability to finance the cost of refining Russian crude oil. Experts in Pakistan fear that the imports won’t bring down already-high domestic petrol prices.

Pakistan also doesn’t want to antagonize the United States, which wields strong influence over global financial institutions. Islamabad likely won’t agree to oil deals with Moscow that exceed the price cap agreed upon by Western countries, as it could trigger U.S. sanctions. Then there are geopolitical concerns. Pakistan wants to project itself as neutral toward Russia and Ukraine and has reportedly sent small arms to Kyiv. Some energy imports from Russia balance the scales, but too many shipments could tip them over.

Meanwhile, India and the United States have begun implementing foundational defense deals that strengthen communication and intelligence-sharing. In New Delhi last week, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin discussed fast-tracking technology transfers. This comes as Russian missile defense shipments to India have been delayed amid the war in Ukraine, boosting U.S. officials’ arguments that cash-strapped Russia will eventually start to look like an unreliable security partner for India.

For now, though, India remains firmly committed to its partnership with Russia. Even as it increases defense cooperation with Washington, New Delhi is not fully convinced that Western partners can supply it with the military equipment that it has long received from Moscow, especially at comparable prices. India could argue that Russian arms shipments strengthen its capacity to deter China, as long as Beijing doesn’t sway Moscow to curb the sales.

Both India and Pakistan continue to balance relations with Russia and the West. So does nearby Bangladesh, which has blocked dozens of U.S.-sanctioned ships while conducting other transactions with Russia in Chinese currency. This all reflects a pattern across the global south, where Russia still enjoys influence—even as countries seek commercial cooperation with the West.