Elon Musk’s Starlink internet service is expected to complement Somalia’s existing telecommunications infrastructure, significantly improving the country’s internet coverage and providing broader access for the entire population.

Somalia already has several internet cables from its coastlines, and the addition of Starlink’s satellite service will extend connectivity to the most remote regions.

Many believe that Starlink’s licence was granted at a strategically advantageous moment, enabling the company to capitalise on available opportunities. However, it also faces significant risks due to the security situation in Somalia and the threats posed by Al-Shabaab, which could impede its ability to conduct business operations, according to political analyst Mohamed Elmi Afrah.

“Starlink’s target communities in these remote rural areas, primarily under Al-Shabaab control, will face challenges in leveraging the opportunities presented. Al-Shabaab regards internet access in the regions they govern as a primary security threat,” Afrah tells The Africa Report, referring to the southern and central regions.

Sovereignty tensions

Since Starlink received its licence to operate in Somalia, questions have arisen regarding the implications for other places, such as the self-declared independent Republic of Somaliland, and whether Starlink can operate there without Somaliland’s consent.

A senior Somaliland government official, speaking anonymously, tells The Africa Report that they are currently assessing the nature of the licence.

“Based on our experience, since Starlink provides satellite internet and must operate physically in areas under our control, we believe they cannot conduct business without our consent,” he says.

The granting of a licence to Musk’s Starlink may be perceived as implicit support for the Somali Federal Government, complicating the already fragile balance between the two regions.

Notably, this development coincides with Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud‘s recent comments at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum, where he asserted that Somaliland is part of Somalia.

This statement further complicates the dynamics, especially following Somali Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre’s visit to Las Anod, a town claimed by both regions. In response, Somaliland held an extraordinary cabinet meeting and announced its withdrawal from negotiations with Somalia.

“This Starlink licence could be seen as an endorsement of the current administration, led by the president, who is under ongoing criticism for issues related to governance and transparency,” says political analyst Mohamed Elmi Afrah.

The price for recognising Somaliland

On the other hand, potential US recognition of Somaliland could destabilise the region and provoke conflict, according to Abdiwahab Sheikh Abdisamad, executive director of the Institute for Horn of Africa Strategic Studies and analyst at Southlink Consultants.

“If the US recognises Somaliland today, I have no doubt it will ignite a civil war. Many clans in the region are unionists and will not accept one-clan dominance,” he tells The Africa Report, adding that it could turn into a similar situation as South Sudan, where Dinka and Nuer communities are continually in conflict.

Abdisamad believes there is the potential for reprisals from across the Gulf of Aden if the US has its eyes on Somaliland for more strategic positioning.

“If the US establishes a military base and launches attacks on the Houthis in Yemen, Hargeisa and Berbera could face devastating retaliation. I strongly warn the US that recognizing Somaliland carries serious and dangerous consequences,” he says.

Omar Mahmood, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group (ICG), who closely monitors political and security developments in Somalia, shares a similar view, noting that Somalia would perceive US recognition of Somaliland as an affront to its sovereignty and that it would likely seriously damage, if not rupture, relations between the two.

Somalia will continue to need a constructive relationship with the US over the longer term

Others believe that scenario is highly unlikely as the US has long prioritised a stable, unified Somalia as essential to counterterrorism, as well as regional and maritime security.

“There is virtually no chance the US will recognise Somaliland. Such a move would shatter US-Somalia relations, undermine years of diplomatic and security cooperation, and defy the African Union’s unequivocal stance on Somalia’s territorial integrity,” says Mohamed Husein Gaas, the founding director of the RAAD Peace Research Institute.

However, Matt Bryden from Sahan Research presents a different perspective, stating that if Washington perceives its national interest lies in recognising Somaliland, it has the right to do so in a manner consistent with international law.

More than 20 new states have been recognised and admitted to the UN since 1991, without causing major upheavals in the international system, says Bryden.

“Even if there is some short-term disruption, as when Mogadishu suspended diplomatic relations with the UK following Kenya’s independence in 1963, Somalia will continue to need a constructive relationship with the US over the longer term,” he says.

Starlink could affect local commerce

Starlink’s arrival may adversely affect local providers like Hormuud, says Abdisamad, taking a protectionist stance. He raises concerns about potential job losses and questions government priorities, reflecting fears of foreign dominance in crucial sectors.

Gaas says that the advent of Starlink in Somalia is an economic catalyst.

“Starlink’s rollout in Somalia should be viewed through a commercial and developmental lens – not a political one. Rather than fuelling fragmentation, its presence could unlock broader tech investment, expand internet access, and foster stronger economic ties across regions,” he says.

Somalia believing that its Starlink/Musk contract will gain political favour – nix the Somaliland sovereignty proposal – with the Trump administration is misguided, says Byden.

“Mogadishu has proven a deeply unsatisfactory partner, failing to contain the threat of Al-Shabaab and actively undermining the efforts of Puntland to combat the Islamic State in Somalia, which Washington assesses to be linked to the Houthis and, by extension, to Iran,” he says, adding that the deal is highly unlikely to outweigh America’s broader security and geopolitical concerns.

US anti-terrorism ops may aid Starlink’s  deployment

US President Donald Trump made a recent security pledge to Somalia to prevent terrorists, particularly the Houthis, from gaining a foothold in the country. In addition, several airstrikes in Puntland have targeted ISIS affiliates hiding in the mountainous regions of northeastern Somalia, thereby weakening the group’s capabilities.

Abdiqafar Farah, a former director of the Puntland Intelligence Agency and the current director of the AMNI Forum, a security think tank, told The Africa Report that the recent US drone attacks in Puntland against the Islamic State militia will help Somali authorities, especially in Puntland, overcome challenges they faced prior to the group’s defeat.

This effort enables Starlink to operate in various locations, reaching remote areas of the country and mitigating the threat posed by Islamist groups. Despite considerable geopolitical and security risks, this initiative offers hope to millions of Somalis in need of reliable internet access.