Courtesy of The Africa Report, a look at U.S. efforts to move closer to Tanzania:

As geopolitical competition between the US and China on the continent intensifies, one country to watch is Tanzania, a historical Chinese ally, but also a major recipient of Washington aid. Analysts say Washington sees a window of opportunity to increase its leverage in Tanzania.

US Vice President Harris Kamala visited Tanzania during her three-nation Africa tour at the end of March.

Among the many initiatives pledged, she announced that the US will:

– provide $560m in bilateral aid next fiscal year,
– expand US–Tanzania commercial engagement,
– invest in battery-grade nickel industry, which will be sold to the US and the global market, and
– expand affordable broadband.

Under the two-year presidency of Samia Suluhu Hassan, Tanzania has become progressive and highly active, diplomatically. Samia rolled back the unpopular domestic policies of her predecessor, John Pombe Magufuli, such as restrictions on political and media freedoms, and banning the education of pregnant girls.

Unlike Magafuli, Samia has visited both Washington and Beijing, a signal that the country is ready to engage internationally.

It was during Samia’s visit to Washington that she invited Kamala to Tanzania.

“The US government saw a window of opportunity after Magufuli passed away, [someone] who had a very critical stance towards Western powers, governments and aid agencies telling Tanzania government what to do,” Tim Zajontz, a lecturer in International Relations at the Technische Universität Dresden and a Research Fellow at Stellenbosch University, tells The Africa Report.

“Since coming into office, President [Samia] Hassan has tried to rectify the estrangement that her country has experienced with Western governments and investors under her predecessor Magufuli,” he says.

Zajontz notes that Magufuli was equally critical of Chinese investors over unfair business dealings.

Muhidin Shangwe, a China-Africa scholar at University of Dar es Salaam, shares similar sentiments.

“For the US, they look at Tanzania as a country that has a potential to become a strong ally,” he tells The Africa Report. “There [has been] hesitancy on the side of Tanzania” because of historical ties with Beijing, he adds.

The country is a beneficiary of the Tazara railway (an integral link between Tanzania and Zambia), which is China’s most consequential and largest foreign aid project in Africa. Constructed in the 1970s, the railway is due for a major renovation which is expected to be also funded by Beijing.

Money flow, high profile visits
Tanzania is a paradox that perhaps illustrates the effects of the foreign policy agenda of China and the US on the continent in the past decades. Take for instance, aid that has been a key feature of Washington’s foreign policy and bilateral loans, which has also been Beijing’s main foreign policy tool.

According to a US government website on foreign assistance, between 2018 and 2022, Tanzania received $2.7bn in aid from the US government. This exceeds China’s loan to Tanzania, which stands at $2.1bn as of 2022, according to a database by Boston University Global Development Policy Center.

Zajontz says Tanzania, and East Africa in general, have long been of critical importance to the US administration, largely for security reasons.

“Successive US administrations have considered Tanzania and Kenya as key strategic partners in their so-called war against terror; but US-led efforts to contain the influence of Al-Shabaab and Al-Qaeda-affiliated groups in the greater East African region have delivered at best mixed results,” he says.

Tanzania, too, has received significant high profile political visits from the two global powers. Between 2008 and 2013, Tanzania received two presidential visits from the US and two from China. First, George Bush visited in 2008 while China’s Hu Jintao visited in 2009.

Xi Jinping visited in March 2013, days after assuming his presidency while Barack Obama followed three months later in a visit that was viewed as business focused. However, there were no major business deals signed. It was Bush’s earlier visit, however, that was deemed consequential: in 2008, for instance, Tanzania received slightly over a billion dollars in US aid.

Shangwe argues that these high profile visits were due to a pragmatic foreign policy approach by then president Jakaya Kikwete. “This had more to do with Tanzania’s diversification of diplomatic relations,” he says.

Also significant was Samia’s November 2022 visit to Beijing. She was the first African head of state to visit Beijing following the 20th Chinese Communist Party congress, which handed President Xi Jinping a third term. During the visit, China and Tanzania upgraded bilateral relations to a comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership, which is seen as China’s highest diplomatic level.

The two countries signed deals ranging from upgrading of Tazara railway to debt waiver, duty-free access of Tanzania products to China market, loans and grants among others.

What can the US do better?
Just like in many other African countries, Chinese presence in Tanzania has grown significantly over the last two decades, not least in infrastructure, extractive industries, and trade.

“In many ways, the US administration is now playing catch-up with China, not least in sectors that are deemed sensitive, such as information technology,” says Zajontz who is also a Research Associate in the Second Cold War Observatory, a global research collective committed to understanding of how great power rivalry will influence societies, economies and ecologies worldwide.

The Americans are also becoming aggressive in terms of exploring business opportunities

During her visit to Dar es Salaam, US Vice President Harrris promised the US will undertake initiatives to enhance trade between the two countries and increase Tanzania’s productive capacities.

“They signed a new agreement between the US Exim Bank and the Tanzania government to facilitate US exports and investments in Tanzania in sectors like infrastructure, the digital economy and energy,” says Zajontz.

Shangwe too says that there is a growing realisation by the Americans that they need to change their approach if they are to compete with China in countries like Tanzania. “The Americans are also becoming aggressive in terms of exploring business opportunities,” he says. “Last year, there was a business delegation from America which came to Tanzania exploring business opportunities.”

What does Tanzania want?
Zajontz hopes that it is Tanzanians who will determine what they want. “It is obvious that China and the US are courting the Tanzanian government to maintain their influence in what is considered a geo-strategically important world region.

“Tanzanian decision-makers seem fully aware of geopolitical developments and I think they will try to avoid [siding] with either the West or China, but will rather pragmatically engage with either side,” he says.

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Zajontz tells The Africa Report that the challenge for Tanzanian or any other African country will be to navigate their country’s interests in a global context, which is marked by intensifying geopolitical and geoeconomic competition.

“It won’t be easy for African governments to maintain their autonomy in times in which great power rivalry has returned to the continent,” he says.