The Super Peso

Courtesy of Latinometrics, a look at how the Mexican peso is outshining the rest of the world:

First, there’s the good: Mexican businesses and consumers can buy foreign goods, invest, and travel more inexpensively, leading to stronger commercial relationships and quality of life. Also, as foreign investors expect the peso to continue rising (thanks largely to the broader macroeconomic trend of nearshoring), they inject more capital into the country, creating more jobs and economic prosperity.


Then there are the potential downsides: Mexican goods are more expensive, which can hurt trade, the country’s most significant economic activity. A strong peso also makes tourism more expensive, which accounts for 9% of the overall GDP.

By most measures, including tourism, Mexico is overcoming the hurdles that a strong peso could bring. So much investment has been announced this year by manufacturing and technology companies that it’s hard to keep up. It’s also hard to imagine the usual cons of a strong currency outweighing the current economic boom.

After all, the dollar being the historically strongest currency didn’t stop the US from becoming the biggest economy on the planet. Speaking of “strongest,” in the past five years the Mexican peso has appreciated the most out of the 20 main currencies in circulation, even beating the Swiss franc by a small margin.

In recent years, Mexican companies and investors have found that expanding into the US market is increasingly affordable. According to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Mexican direct investment in the United States went from $19.5B in 2019 to $33.7B in 2022 (latest data available), a remarkable 73% increase.

Renowned Mexican brands like Grupo BimboCemex, and Arca Continental are doubling down on their presence up north, from acquiring local businesses to opening new manufacturing plants. Mexicans are also now the top foreign buyers of US real estate.

The big question on everyone’s mind is: How long will the super peso and economic boom last? Nobody ever knows, but one thing is clear: Mexico’s momentum is one of the most exciting in the world.



This entry was posted on Friday, May 17th, 2024 at 3:20 am and is filed under Mexico.  You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.  Both comments and pings are currently closed. 

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WILDCATS AND BLACK SHEEP
Wildcats & Black Sheep is a personal interest blog dedicated to the identification and evaluation of maverick investment opportunities arising in frontier - and, what some may consider to be, “rogue” or “black sheep” - markets around the world.

Focusing primarily on The New Seven Sisters - the largely state owned petroleum companies from the emerging world that have become key players in the oil & gas industry as identified by Carola Hoyos, Chief Energy Correspondent for The Financial Times - but spanning other nascent opportunities around the globe that may hold potential in the years ahead, Wildcats & Black Sheep is a place for the adventurous to contemplate & evaluate the emerging markets of tomorrow.