Conspiracy theories and provocations abound online, including that the lithium project will secretly mine uranium, that it will poison Serbia’s drinking water and that sulfuric acid rain will fall over the capital, Belgrade, if the mine is built. Rio Tinto, the mining giant that owns the project, says these claims are false and that it has to regularly rebut them. 

The mine has become an unlikely flashpoint in U.S.-Russia relations. The West has been trying to secure the minerals needed for the energy transition by decreasing its dependence on Chinese-dominated supply chains. Meanwhile, Moscow is seeking to retain influence in a strategically important region by preventing Serbia from fostering closer ties with the West, analysts say. 

Following a review of social-media posts and newspaper articles related to the mine, the Global Engagement Center, a State Department office aimed at countering disinformation abroad, “considers it to be highly likely that the Kremlin has played a role in spreading this disinformation,” a spokesperson said.

Christopher Hill, the U.S. ambassador to Serbia, said pro-Kremlin provocateurs built support for anti-lithium protests through official and unofficial channels. While he says there are differences of opinion in the country about the mine, “it’s clear that Russia seized an opportunity here to try to drive a wedge between Serbia and the West.”

Germany also believes Russia is involved in the campaign against the project. “We have observed clear signs of inauthentic amplification from the Russian disinformation ecosystem,” a government official said.

Russia didn’t respond to a request for comment. In August, a Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman said “certain malicious forces” were trying to undermine the Serbian government and said “ideologists from Western countries” had used that strategy previously in the Balkans. 

A controversial project

The lithium deposit, located near Loznica in the Jadar Valley in western Serbia, about 60 miles from Belgrade, promises to be a significant asset for Rio Tinto—and for Europe’s access to lithium.

Rio Tinto says the mine will produce battery-grade lithium carbonate, a critical mineral used in the batteries that go into electric vehicles or store renewable energy. It is forecast to produce enough lithium for more than one million EV batteries a year and last 40 years.

The Jadar project in 2021 was estimated to cost $2.4 billion and still requires various approvals. The mine, which would need about 3,500 people to build and 1,300 to run, would contribute about 1% directly and 4% indirectly to Serbia’s gross domestic product, Rio Tinto estimates. 

The mine has long been controversial, with many locals concerned about air and soil quality, mine waste and other impacts on the environment. 

Rio Tinto executives acknowledge that some opponents of the project have legitimate concerns, and say they are trying to address them. Chief Executive Jakob Stausholm flew to Serbia earlier this month to answer questions from the community during a six-hour session broadcast on television. 

“It is critical there is a fact-based public dialogue that allows people to form opinions based on accurate information,” said Chad Blewitt, Rio Tinto’s managing director for the Jadar project.

The Jadar project was previously halted in 2022 when the Serbian government revoked its licenses after months of protests and the opposition made it a key issue in the last presidential election.

Serbia’s government then endorsed the project in July when it signed a strategic partnership on critical minerals with the European Union.

The flood of online and on-the-ground protests that followed caught Rio Tinto off guard, with government officials and mining executives saying they had never before seen the level of vitriol aimed at a mining project.

Serbia’s Ministry of Mining and Energy said it was contending with “a tide of misinformation” about the project, which it said would create jobs and wouldn’t endanger public health or the environment.

‘A huge threat for Moscow’

Russia has previously been accused of meddling abroad to promote its energy interests, and to obstruct Balkan integration with Western institutions.

Geoffrey Pyatt, the U.S. assistant secretary of state for energy resources, said claims online about the mine had similarities with previous Russian disinformation he has observed. Western officials, for example, have previously alleged that Russia funded anti-shale-gas protests and environmental groups in Europe to maintain its energy dominance.

The lithium project represents a turning point for Serbia, where it could exit Russia’s sphere of influence and attach itself to Europe’s economic and strategic plans, said Orhan Dragaš, the director of the International Security Institute, a Belgrade-based think tank. “This is a huge threat for Moscow, which is why it spares no effort to thwart it,” he said.

Serbia has long had close ties to Russia. Though it condemned the invasion of Ukraine, Belgrade hasn’t imposed sanctions against Moscow and has forged new agreements with it, including on gas supply and foreign policy. Russians enjoy visa-free travel to Serbia, one of the few countries with direct flights to Russia. 

At the same time, Serbia has fostered closer ties with the West. Earlier this month, it signed an agreement with the U.S. to encourage investment in the country’s energy sector.

Rio Tinto, though, continues to face pockets of resistance. 

Some nationalist fans of soccer teams Red Star Belgrade and Partizan Belgrade have held up banners referencing the lithium mine during matches.

In 2022, Red Star Belgrade approached Rio Tinto to sponsor the club, but the latter declined, wanting to focus on community partnerships around the mine, said a person familiar with the matter.

The soccer team’s current main shirt sponsor: Russian oil giant Gazprom.