A billion-dollar expansion of the biggest US strategic critical-minerals project in Africa faces delays because of the Trump administration’s sweeping foreign-aid freeze, providing a potential opening for rivals like China.

The Lobito corridor railway project — which is meant to ferry minerals from the Central African copperbelt to the Angolan coast for export to the West — is among mining and energy projects across the continent that have been pledged loans and services by the US International Development Finance Corp., with co-funding from the US Agency for International Development.

Government officials and developers now fear such projects may be disrupted as funding for studies, technical services and payments are frozen amid the Trump administration’s dismantling of foreign aid, according to people familiar with the matter. While the projects appear to fit with the administration’s goals and focus on critical minerals, the anxiety surrounding the plans illustrates how President Donald Trump has injected uncertainty even into strategic investments.

A plan to rehabilitate a railway in the Democratic Republic of Congo linked to the Lobito corridor may be under threat from the funding cuts, according to five people with knowledge of the talks. The US and European Union signed an agreement with Congo in December to study the project, estimated to cost as much as $1 billion, according to four of the people.

The Lobito Atlantic Railway

Network of 2,600 kilometers linking Congo and Zambia to Angola’s coast

USAID provided $250,000 to study financial models for the renovation – including the possibility of public-private partnerships involving Western companies and DFC financing – and had submitted a request for $5 million in additional funding to do an updated pre-feasibility study, the people said. While the US, European Union and the European Investment Bank are still engaged with the project, the US money is blocked indefinitely, the people said.

Separate Works

Lobito Atlantic Railway has started separate works to improve the Congo section of tracks, and these are steadily advancing, it said. Asked if it was concerned about any potential delays under the new administration, the group said it’s “progressing very well with the implementation and operation of the Lobito railway corridor.”

While the Trump approach is “a bit of a guessing game,” the US needs greater access to minerals, said Thomas Scurfield, Africa senior economic analyst for the Natural Resource Governance Institute. China has spent decades securing a dominant mining position in Africa, while wealthy Gulf states have recently entered the fray.

“If it walks away from efforts to support African ambitions including on value addition, and from an increased focus on ESG principles, it’s unclear why African countries would choose US interests over the larger and more reliable financial firepower of China or new players like Saudi Arabia,” he said.

Key Critical Minerals Found in Africa

The United States is fully dependent on shipments for some mineral supply

Trump’s advisers have discussed shifting USAID funding under the DFC, a step that would reduce humanitarian assistance and encourage a greater role for private equity groups. Trump has nominated Ben Black — the son of Apollo Global Management co-founder Leon Black — to head the DFC, which the administration wants to use more like a sovereign wealth fund, with a particular focus on critical minerals.

DFC “will faithfully execute and comply with all executive orders and remains committed to advancing development finance initiatives that align with US foreign policy and national security objectives of the Trump administration,” a DFC official said in an emailed response to questions, declining to provide a list of pending project financing due to business confidentiality.

Unparalleled Clout

The DFC was established under the first Trump administration to combat the influence of China, which has built unparalleled clout across the Global South through infrastructure lending. The DFC and the US Export-Import bank have invested in projects to mine and export critical minerals along with building power stations.

Last year, the US approved a $553 million DFC loan for the Lobito Atlantic Railway project — operated by a consortium led by commodities trader Trafigura Group — which is designed to link copper mines in Congo and Zambia to the port of Lobito in neighboring Angola.

The project to transport and export the minerals was championed by former President Joe Biden, who visited the port as part of his only trip to Africa during his presidency. The Trafigura-led group expects to receive the first DFC disbursement by March.

Lobito and other projects helped the US build stronger ties on the continent, according to Zambian Transport Minister Frank Tayali.

“For a long time, Zambia was predominantly skewed towards working with the East,” he said at a conference this month. “The US should not create a vacuum that other people might want to fill up.”