Tunisia’s struggle to mitigate widespread bread shortages risks eroding its authoritarian president’s popularity, triggering social unrest, and delaying the disbursement of needed funds from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). On Aug. 19, the Tunisian government announced that it would resupply flour to private bakeries after withholding supplies for two weeks, in an attempt to ease a strike complicating the ongoing bread shortage in the North African country. The announcement came several days after authorities arrested the bakeries’ union head Mohamed Bouanane on Aug. 16 for alleged ”monopoly and speculation with subsidized foodstuffs,” in an apparent effort to use the union head as a scapegoat for the widespread bread shortages in the country. On Aug. 1, President Saied also fired Prime Minister Najla Bouden and replaced her with Ahmed Hachani, a former central bank executive. While the presidential office gave no official reason for the shake-up, observers widely suspect the move was similarly aimed at deflecting criticism against the government’s failure to ease the country’s economic crisis by using Bouden as a scapegoat. 

• In Tunisia, private bakeries produce cheaper bread that’s subsidized by the government, as well as more expensive, unsubsidized bread and pastries. Because they also produce more ”frivolous” products that only wealthier Tunisians can afford, these bakeries pay higher prices for their daily flour quotas compared with their public counterparts that only produce fully subsidized bread. In late July, the government cut off private bakers’ supplies of durum wheat flour in an effort to force private bakeries to produce more subsidized bread (which is in higher demand) rather than more expensive bread. In response, private bakers launched a strike, arguing they need the revenue generated from selling more expensive products to cover the growing costs of flour.

President Saied is scrambling to deflect blame amid the country’s worsening economic crisis and food shortages. Over the last year, Tunisia has faced food shortages brought on by high inflation (which reached 9.1% in July), as well as water and grain shortages brought on by a severe drought. By straining its fiscal margins and foreign currency reserves, the government’s significant debt liabilities have also left Tunis unable to purchase more food imports to make up for the domestic shortfall. The government’s recent decision to resume flour supplies to private bakeries will ease their current strike and should, in turn, increase the availability of more ”luxury” bread products for the wealthier Tunisians who can afford them. This, combined with Saied’s efforts to find scapegoats for the country’s economic crisis, may temporarily forestall hits to the president’s popularity. But overall food and bread supplies in the country will remain tight, as Saeid’s cash-strapped government struggles to purchase enough flour to ramp up bakeries’ production — thus maintaining the risk of continued shortages that could trigger social unrest.

• For months, subsidized, public-sector bakeries have been running out of bread within hours after opening each day due to the flour shortages, as well as high demand among economically struggling Tunisians. 
• Since the start of his overhaul of the Tunisian political system in July 2021, President Saeid has largely ruled by decree, weakening the power of the country’s popularly elected parliament and other institutions. 
• According to a June survey conducted by the North African pollster Emrhod Consulting, Saied’s popularity was still relatively high, despite his controversial efforts to consolidate power. But opinion polls are often unreliable in Tunisia, and anecdotal evidence gathered on the ground indicates that Tunisians are growing increasingly frustrated with the food shortages and their government’s apparent inability to resolve the crisis. 

The decision to backtrack on the controversial flour decision confirms how hard it will be for Tunisia’s government to implement IMF-requested austerity measures, which could delay the disbursement of funds and result in a protracted economic crisis. In October 2022, the IMF agreed to supply Tunisia with a $1.9 billion loan to be disbursed in tranches over 48 months. The agreement is widely seen as key to shoring up the country’s failing economy and improving investor confidence in Tunisian debt. But in March, Saied publicly rejected the wide-ranging economic reforms required by the IMF. In June, the country’s central bank governor said Tunis was trying to thread the needle between the strict austerity measures requested by the IMF and pursuing a softer range of reforms that ”takes into account vulnerable groups” and does not require cutting subsidies. Saied’s government will do whatever it can to avoid disrupting the price of bread and other basic goods. But without a path forward on the staff-level IMF agreement or some other major financial loan or grant, Tunis is unlikely to be able to quell the current economic crisis, which will raise the risk of more strikes and social unrest as Tunisians become increasingly desperate. 

• Raising the price of subsidized bread is a particularly sensitive political issue in Tunisia. The government’s last attempt to increase bread prices triggered deadly riots in 1983, which has left subsequent governments hesitant to reapproach the topic. 

• In recent months, some sporadic protests have occurred in Tunisian cities driven by angry citizens upset at food shortages, indicating the existence of dissent the government does not want to exacerbate.

• Subsidies and public wages account for roughly 8% and 17.5% of Tunisia’s public expenditures, respectively. Tunisia’s powerful UGTT labor union has successfully lobbied for continued wage increases and has also pushed back against subsidy cuts that could impact the commercial sector.