As Europe continues its transition away from dependence on Russian pipeline gas, policymakers and energy strategists are confronted with a new reality: short-term crisis management has not yet yielded a stable, long-term supply framework.

In a recent analysis for Politis, energy investor and regional expert Igor Makarov argues that while liquefied natural gas (LNG) has provided critical flexibility, it cannot serve as Europe’s strategic backbone, and that Turkmenistan, with its vast gas reserves, may be part of the solution.

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent reshaping of European gas flows, the EU has rapidly diversified its imports — drawing more LNG from global markets and increasing pipeline supplies from Norway, the United States, Algeria, Qatar, the UK, and Azerbaijan.

Yet, Makarov’s analysis argues that LNG alone is not enough: Europe still lacks a politically diversified, scalable pipeline supply to underpin its long-term energy security. This structural gap must be addressed if the continent is to reduce supply volatility and insulate its economy from geopolitical shocks.

Why Turkmenistan?

Turkmenistan holds the world’s fourth-largest proven natural gas reserves, anchored by the giant Galkynysh field, a resource base large enough to meaningfully contribute to European demand. According to IMF economists cited by Makarov, Turkmen gas has historically been kept out of European markets not because of cost or quality, but due to geopolitical constraints and infrastructure bottlenecks.

In the 1990s, Makarov’s former company, ITERA, was among the first to secure viable market outlets for Turkmen gas, supplying Ukraine and other post-Soviet states – demonstrating the commercial viability of Turkmen resources. This access persisted until the early 2000s, when Gazprom’s monopoly over westbound pipeline infrastructure effectively shut Turkmenistan out of European markets, not for economic reasons, but due to transit control constraints.

A key challenge remains: moving Turkmen gas westward without routing through Russia. The long-proposed Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline, designed to transport gas under the Caspian Sea from Turkmenistan to Azerbaijan and onward via Turkey into Europe, exemplifies both ambition and complexity in this context. While technically feasible, this project has been stalled for decades by geopolitical resistance and financing hurdles.

Makarov outlines a more flexible, phased strategy in which Turkmen gas begins flowing westward using existing infrastructure and mechanisms. These include:

• Integration into Azerbaijan–Turkey pipeline systems, aligning Turkmen supply with the established Southern Gas Corridor;
• Swap arrangements, whereby Turkmen gas is delivered to Turkey and potentially forwarded to European markets;
• Political and diplomatic frameworks that solidify cooperation among Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, and Turkey – the “missing link” in unlocking broader export potential.

These mechanisms would initially deliver modest but meaningful volumes while building commercial and logistical foundations for more ambitious infrastructure expansion.

Such developments reflect a shift from singular “mega-project” thinking toward multi-corridor diplomacy and incremental integration, an approach that balances geopolitical constraints with tangible market access.

The Way Forward

The core insight from Makarov’s analysis is this: Europe’s long-term energy security cannot be fully achieved without integrating Turkmenistan into its supply architecture, not as a peripheral partner but as a strategic supplier.

Makarov concludes that to realize this potential, Europe will need a coordinated investment and political framework that incentivizes infrastructure expansion, along with flexible interim mechanisms. This strategy will result in reduced lead times for supply diversification and strong institutional cooperation that aligns EU strategic objectives with regional ambitions in Central Asia.

Makarov believes that if Europe can adopt a phased, pragmatic strategy to integrate Turkmen gas, it stands to gain a stable, diversified energy source that aligns closely with long-term security and economic resilience.