Which African Countries Are Tomorrow’s Mining Leaders?

Via The Africa Report, an article on the second edition of itse exclusive 25 Top Mining Destinations ranking in which Southern Africa and Morocco dominate the top positions, while West and Central Africa are waiting in the wings:

For the second year running, South Africa, Namibia, Botswana and Morocco are the clear-cut top four leading our ranking of Africa’s 25 most attractive mining countries. Beyond this cluster, however, the picture changes.

Ghana and Zambia emerge as the main challengers, followed by a number of francophone countries posting sharp rises – and some surprising falls. These shifts reflect both the sector’s dynamism – driven by the race for critical minerals and stratospheric gold and copper prices – and mounting intra-African and international tensions.

To compile its ranking, The Africa Report assessed five criteria: the volume of reserves in 13 major minerals (bauxite, cobalt, copper, diamonds, iron ore, graphite, lithium, manganese, gold, nickel, platinum, uranium and zinc); the number of ongoing projects in critical minerals; the business climate and country risk; the legal framework and governance; and the quality of energy and transport infrastructure. While genuine geological potential is an obvious prerequisite for attracting mining companies, meeting the other criteria remains crucial in triggering an investment decision.

South Africa (#1) tops the ranking thanks to its proven reserves – the largest and most diversified on the continent. The country holds the world’s biggest stocks of platinum and manganese, two metals essential to both traditional and emerging industries. Platinum is used in catalytic converters as well as in green-hydrogen technologies, while manganese is a key component of steel and batteries.

South Africa – a leader with structural weaknesses

“The country is mature,” notes mining expert Bareja Youmssi, pointing out that South Africa’s subsoil has been extensively explored and that new discoveries are rare – though key infrastructure is firmly in place. “It is not easy to enter the country,” he adds, “given the stringent regulations and the very detailed impact studies required before a licence is granted. And returns on investment are slow.”

Christian Mion, a partner at EY, highlights “significant energy and social problems”, as well as the “erosion of the African National Congress’ dominance, which weakens medium-term stability”. Stability in governance – and above all in the legal and tax regime – is essential for mining investments, which often span 15 to 30 years.

Hot on South Africa’s heels, Namibia (#2), Botswana (#3) and Morocco (#4) stand out precisely for their legal stability and favourable business climates. Their reserves of critical minerals are also compelling. Namibia is rich in uranium – a source of low-carbon energy – as well as copper, graphite and lithium. Morocco benefits from copper and cobalt resources.

Botswana, for its part, is no longer relying solely on diamonds, but increasingly on copper. “There is still real exploration potential, with easily exploitable deposits to be identified,” explains geologist John Dixon, whereas in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Africa’s copper hub, “deposits are hard to find”.

BHP, the world’s largest mining group by market capitalisation, has taken note: it has backed two copper exploration juniors in Botswana – Cobre and Tutume Metals – through its BHP Xplor incubator. France’s nuclear specialist Orano, bruised by its setbacks in Niger (#19), has applied for uranium exploration licences there too, as much remains to be discovered.

Zambia’s pro-business turn pays off

Record gold prices, up 65% in 2025, and copper prices, up 40%, are reshaping the sector’s geography, making many exploration and production projects more profitable. This trend has kept copper-rich Zambia high in the ranking, in sixth place.

Since President Hakainde Hichilema came to power in 2021, the country has pursued a pro-business agenda. Investors are flocking in: Canada’s Barrick Mining, the UAE’s International Resources Holding, China Nonferrous Mining Corporation and America’s KoBold Metals have all announced major investments.

Rising gold prices also explain Ghana’s (#5) advance from 10th place. “There is still significant potential to discover deposits containing several million ounces,” says Dixon. Given that exploration is costly, prospecting in areas with higher probabilities of success is reassuring. Ghana is also positioning itself in energy-transition minerals such as bauxite and lithium.

Another asset, notes lawyer Mohamed Sidiki Sylla, is that “Ghana has developed strong local mining expertise, with recognised service companies”. To improve sector governance, Accra also created the Ghana Gold Board in 2025, an authority that centralises and regulates the purchase, sale and export of Ghanaian gold, while improving traceability, reducing smuggling and maximising state revenues.

Côte d’Ivoire (#9), which climbed five places from 2025, is another example of this momentum. Home to 35% of the West African Birimian greenstone belt – the geological formation that hosts most of West Africa’s gold – the country has seen a string of discoveries, from Koné (Montage Gold) to Assafou (Endeavour Mining).

Legislative elections in December 2025 passed without unrest, and the country’s strong economic performance has benefited from investor reticence towards Mali and Burkina Faso, where insecurity and military rule are unsettling.

Juntas do not deter everyone

Even so, West Africa’s military regimes still feature prominently in the Top 25. Guinea (#10) has slipped slightly from seventh in 2025 owing to recent governance uncertainties – military rule until the return to constitutional order in December 2025 – and weak infrastructure, particularly in energy.

Yet its bauxite reserves, the largest in the world, and the launch in November 2025 of iron-ore production at Simandou, along with its associated 650km railway, make it a key African mining player. “When a country holds the world’s main bauxite reserves, those who need alumina and aluminium will come knocking, especially when prices are at record highs,” says Sylla.

Still, the wave of licence withdrawals in May 2025 and the freezing of the mining cadastre since 2021 have cooled some investors’ enthusiasm.

Mali (#12) and Burkina Faso (#13), both gold-rich and under military rule, hold steady in the middle of the table. Laurence Vanderstraete, a partner at De Gaulle Fleurance, reports “a resurgence of interest in Mali in 2025 from new entrants already active in other sectors in Africa. These are often consortia involving partners from the Gulf region”.

Risk perception varies. Western investors are generally risk-averse, whereas Emirati and Chinese firms are more comfortable operating in countries deemed difficult. Moreover, the system of mining conventions, which provides a stable framework over the life of concessions, remains an advantage for francophone countries. But Mali’s decision to revise existing texts shows that states can tighten conditions.

The DRC paradox

The DRC (#11) has fallen sharply from being in fifth place last year. It epitomises the contradictions of Africa’s mining sector. Many investors shy away. Its governance and business climate rank among the continent’s worst, with widespread allegations of corruption and the politicisation of commerce. Failures in the power grid and conflict in the north-east further deter investors.

Yet the country is nevertheless the second-highest rated in terms of mining reserves and critical-minerals projects. It holds the world’s largest cobalt reserves, alongside vast quantities of copper, gold, lithium, manganese and diamonds. A sign of its enduring appeal is that “since 2020, the DRC has nearly doubled its copper production, notably thanks to Chinese companies”, notes Piotr Kulas, an analyst at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. “Producing copper there is cheaper than elsewhere, because grades are higher, at around 3%.”

At the bottom of the ranking, some countries suffer from acute governance problems, notably Zimbabwe (#18) and Niger. The lowest positions are also occupied by countries considered “new frontiers”, such as Angola (#23), Malawi (#24) and Uganda (#20), where known reserves are more limited. Should investors commit in greater numbers, future editions of the ranking could look very different.

Methodology

The ranking methodology analyses the potential of 13 strategic minerals using a multidimensional approach: while geological reserves (50% of the score) and the momentum of ongoing projects (10%) form the basis of the assessment, our model also gives significant weight to the operating environment. Thus, 40% of the final score is based on the concrete capacity of states to develop these resources, measured fairly through the quality of governance, risk management and the business climate, as well as the maturity of infrastructure.

The data sources used are multiple, including, among others, the Fraser Institute, Coface, the United States Geological Survey (USGS), Critical Minerals: Pivotal Outlook and theglobaleconomy.com.

Data from these sources were standardised and harmonised, and each criterion was assigned a score out of 100. When data were missing, a score of 0 was assigned for the corresponding criterion in the calculation of the final score.

 



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