On 15 December, Mali’s junta leader Assimi Goïta attended the opening of the Goulamina mine, where Chinese firm Ganfeng Lithium aims to produce 500,000 tonnes of spodumene concentrate annually.

A few weeks later, on 11 February, UK-based Kodal Minerals announced production at the nearby Bougouni mine, targeting 125,000 tonnes per year. This could make Mali Africa’s top lithium producer in 2025, ahead of Zimbabwe, the continent’s only other large-scale supplier.

A strategic sector amid falling prices

While some investors hesitate over Mali’s new mining laws, lithium is taking off. The metal is essential for electric vehicles, wind turbines, solar panels and consumer electronics, with demand expected to grow 40-fold by 2040.

At $850 per tonne, spodumene concentrate promises substantial revenues for Mali. The 2023 Mining Code, which offers the state up to 30% ownership and removes tax exemptions, is expected to be more profitable. Goulamina was the first mine to comply, following government pressure. Goïta forecasts Goulamina’s first-year revenue at CFA680bn ($1.13bn), including CFA111bn in dividends, CFA25bn for community development, and 2,000 jobs.

Lithium vs gold

Can lithium rival Mali’s gold sector? Not yet. Production costs remain high — $365 per tonne at Goulamina and $647 at Bougouni — plus taxes and the cost of transport over 900km to Ivorian ports. Prices are volatile, too: spodumene peaked at over $8,000 per tonne in late 2022 but has since plunged.

Despite this, Kodal CEO Bernard Aylward, whose company invested $65m in Bougouni, insists operations will stay profitable. Analysts remain cautious, noting Mali’s gold output was worth $6.2bn last year, while lithium is projected to reach only $1.65bn by 2030.

Building a lithium industry

Interest is growing, with new exploration permits issued and high-quality reserves discovered. Goulamina, in particular, boasts a high lithium yield and low impurities, with over 20 years of expected production.

China, a key player in the global energy transition, is eager for lithium. With limited access to North American and Australian supplies, African reserves are becoming increasingly attractive. However, Mali’s output will likely account for just 2-3% of global production.

To maximise gains, economist Modibo Mao Makalou urges Mali to develop local processing. The state’s 30% stake and the private sector’s 5% share under the new law could facilitate this, but concrete policies are needed.

Processing lithium into an intermediate chemical product, rather than exporting raw ore, could be a viable strategy. “This would cut transport costs for the 900km journey to port,” says Cameron Perks of Benchmark Mineral Intelligence.