Wildcats & Black Sheep Will Trump White House Recognize Somaliland?

Via Semafor, an article on the possibility that a Trump White House looks will recognize the world’s newest country:

Somaliland, a self-governing region within Somalia, will be much closer to being recognized by the United States as the world’s newest country when Donald Trump returns to the White House in January.

Support for the region has grown strong among Republican US-Africa policy leaders on Capitol Hill, right-leaning Washington DC think tanks, and likely Africa advisors of Trump’s incoming White House. Many of these people told Semafor Africa they would encourage Trump to recognize Somaliland “even if it wasn’t on Day One.”

Recognizing Somaliland could enable US intelligence to set up long term operations to monitor the movement of weapons in a volatile region as well as keep an eye on Chinese activity. China already has a permanent military base in neighboring Djibouti. It should allow the US to better monitor Houthi activity in Yemen.

Last month the territory held its sixth successful election since reclaiming independence from Somalia in 1991, bringing opposition leader Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi to office as president. Republicans and other supporters have been encouraged by Somaliland’s democratic strides with a one-person, one-vote system even as conflict-ridden Somalia struggles to organize any elections.

Peter Pham, a former Africa envoy in Trump’s first term, said Somaliland’s democratic process had “demonstrated its attractiveness as a partner for the United States and other countries.”

Somalilanders who spoke with Semafor Africa from the capital Hargeisa soon after the Nov.13 election said they were confident Trump’s return to the White House will boost their aspirations for independence. “We have a golden opportunity to be closer if not for full recognition but much closer engagement with the US,” said Bashir Goth, who heads the Somaliland mission in Washington DC.

If Trump does recognize Somaliland it will likely be disruptive to the Horn of Africa region — which includes Somalia, Ethiopia, Djibouti and Eritrea — say US-Africa watchers, including some who support the idea.

“I support recognizing [Somaliland] because they’ve fundamentally proved they can run their own country and there’s no plausible scenario where they’d willingly return to Somalia,” said Joshua Meservey, an analyst at the Hudson Institute think tank. While Somalia’s leaders would likely be displeased with such a decision, Meservey said they hadn’t done enough for the US to not prioritize its own interests in the sub-region.

“Recognizing Somaliland would undoubtedly rattle the rump state of Somalia, further destabilize the Horn, and elicit a sharp rebuke from the African Union,” argues Ken Opalo,a political science professor at Georgetown University.

Yinka’s view

The support for recognizing Somaliland from Africa watchers on the US right is ostensibly about long-term relations with people in the territory. But it’s also about strategic military and shipping interests in the region, as well as countering China. In particular, the Bab-el Mandeb strait in the Gulf of Aden between Somaliland’s Berbera port, Djibouti and Yemen is a “critical shipping choke point” for moving goods and military wares in the sub-region.

Based on conversations I’ve had with likely advisors to Trump, Hargeisa shouldn’t expect an easy ride with the Trump White House. As we’ve noted previously, this is going to be a very transactional administration which will want to be sure they’re getting something in exchange for official support.

Ethiopia has already made a big bet on Somaliland by signing a controversial maritime agreement with the territory. Africa’s second most populous country is landlocked and very keen to have access to Somaliland’s Berbera port for trade and much more.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s stance with Hargeisa has sparked diplomatic tensions with Somalia’s leaders in Mogadishu and even some mutterings of potential conflict. But if Trump was to recognize Somaliland, Abiy’s gamble could pay off.

Republicans are particularly critical of a so-called “One Somalia” policy which has been supported by the US State Department under President Joe Biden’s administration. The basic policy supports the idea that Somaliland is fully part of Somalia. American Enterprise Institute’s Michael Rubin argues that even if the US isn’t about to recognize Somaliland the State Department should “revert to the policy of the past and treat it in a way that is parallel to its approach to Taiwan.”