Between 2025 and 2050 Africa’s working-age population will expand by 625 million – including 98 million Nigerians, 72 million Congolese (DRC) and 67 million Ethiopians.

The demographic shift is “unprecedented globally and in recent history” and will weigh heavily on labour markets, said Andrew Dabalen, the World Bank Africa chief economist, as the institution released Africa’s Pulse on 7 October.

Africa faces tougher headwinds than regions that underwent earlier demographic transitions – poverty, gaps in human capital and weak institutions.

Against that backdrop, the report makes job creation the centrepiece of its 32nd edition.

The study challenges the trope of chronically high unemployment, noting one of the world’s highest labour-force participation rates – 75% for men and 65% for women aged 15 and over.

However, it stresses that most new entrants end up in low-productivity informal work with limited prospects for income growth, poverty reduction and social mobility.

Upgraded outlook – and pockets of outperformance

The Bank now expects African growth of 3.8% in 2025, up from 3.5% in 2024, reversing the gloom of June’s Global Economic Prospects. Several economies stand out – Guinea at 7.5%, Benin at 7.3% and Niger at 6.5%.

“We revised up the outlook for 30 of the 47 economies, including Ethiopia (+0.7 points to 7.2%), Nigeria (+0.6 to 4.2%) and Côte d’Ivoire (+0.5 to 6.3%),” said Dabalen.

He links the “surprisingly strong” performance partly to African economies’ limited trade exposure to the US. Cooling inflation across most of the continent reinforces that picture.

Jobs need roads, power and data

Creating more – and better – jobs will depend on accelerating electrification and the digital transition, improving roads and rail, strengthening skills and sharpening the business climate, the Bank argues.

On current trends, real income per head will not rise fast enough to curb poverty: 671 million people could be living in poverty in 2027, up from 576 million in 2022.

The report points to tangible gains. Côte d’Ivoire’s push to process cashew nuts locally has created about 18,000 jobs.

The spread of fibre-optic networks has generated 5-7% more jobs in countries including Benin, the DRC, Ghana, Kenya, Namibia, Nigeria, Togo and Tanzania.

The costs of weak infrastructure are also clear. Power cuts reduce employment rates by 5-14 percentage points.

Poor infrastructure raises intra-regional trade costs by 30-40% and – compounded by processing delays and non-tariff barriers – leads to a 37% loss of local food products.

Immediate steps alongside structural reform

Alongside calls for structural change – tax reform, formalisation, infrastructure build-out and deeper intra-African trade – the Bank urges quick wins.

Investments in adult health and in technical and digital skills can lift productivity rapidly.

Public-works programmes and ‘cash-plus’ schemes – cash transfers paired with training or asset provision – can offer immediate support to poor households while opening paths to lasting jobs.

Examples include community-run health posts in Senegal and mobile crèches in Burkina Faso.

Large public-works efforts – Ethiopia’s Green Legacy campaign and the Great Green Wall in the Sahel – are labour-intensive and can help counter environmental degradation.

The Bank warns that more climate shocks, along with conflict, political instability and tighter budgets as donor aid falls, could still disrupt the growth recovery.